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000
FXUS63 KDDC 180004
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
704 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions developing this afternoon.

- A strong cold front overnight will bring strong north wind
  gusts as high as around 50 mph between 3 and 9 am.

- A second strong cold front will reinforce the cool air on
  Saturday, bringing temperatures much below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Light winds with occasional gusts into the 20 mph area
continuing late this afternoon. An intense cold front will be
driven through the area overnight bringing strong gusty winds
through the area, peaking in the hours impacting early morning
commuting and school drop-off time. The morning will be more
challenging than the afternoon however as the momentum transfer
should wane quite a bit by 3 pm Thursday, as the current HREF
grand ensemble drops the mean surface winds gust to around 20
mph. At peak, however the wind gusts could exceed 50 mph for a
few hours in the morning.

FV3 Hi-resolution model soundings show a saturated boundary
layer region by 10z in the DDC area, similar to the HRRR, which
deepens/thickens and persists through the late morning. The 18z
(noon-1pm) timestep begins to hint at some scattering out of the
cloud layer. Highs Thursday afternoon could have a range of
outcomes from 50s to 60s as the 25th and 75th percentile NBM
output vary quite a bit, and might largely be a function of how
quickly the clouds break up – typical this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The settling in of the cooler airmass will mean lows in the 30s
for the next few days (through the weekend) before the airmass
begins to moderate early in the week. The frost/freeze risk
becomes elevated in the westernmost counties along the Colorado
line Saturday morning – mainly around Syracuse and Scott City (a
light freeze could damage unprotected vegetation).

Friday into Saturday will bring a cooling trend with respect to
afternoon highs - as the colder air ans upslope winds,
potentially bringing a little rain to the area, creates highs
limited to the 40s west, and maybe as high as near 60 east. A
marked warmup will follow into the early part of next week with
temperatures soaring back into the 70s and 80s

The week 2 outlook continues to show high confidence (60-70%
probability) in temperatures leaning above average for late
April. Additionally, the dame timeframe probability for
precipitation has increased slightly to the 40 to 50 % percent
range for leaning above in average rainfall. Based on ensemble,
this can occur anything in that week 2 as there is not one
particular period that looks favorably wetter than others.
Midweek next week - The general pattern of the deterministic
global spectral models shows a mean large trough over the west
coast, which leads to breakdown of a mid level ridge with time
over the central plains. That means some potential for severe
weather in the region, not necessarily in our area of Kansas. So
basically every 24 hour time frame of the GEFs and EPS from the
25th to the 3rd of May is showing a little precipitation on the
order of a few hundredths to a more than a tenth of an inch,
but nothing heavy indicated at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A strong cold front will pass across the TAF sites between 08
and 10z, resulting in north winds at 30kts. Low cloud cover will
develop by 12z, with CIGS as low as 1200 ft for a few hours. Dry
air will advect into the region by 16-18z, resulting in
scattered out of cloud. Winds will slowly decrease to 25 kts by
18z and then below 20 kts by late afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Finch