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000
FXXX12 KWNP 151231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to (R1-Minor) solar activity
from Regions 3639 (N30E55, Dsi/beta) and 3634 (N25W35, Ehi/beta). Region
3639 produced an impulsive M1.7/Sf at 15/0118 UTC, an M1.0/Sf at 15/0732
UTC and an impulsive M1.2/Sf at 15/0932 UTC, along with numerous C-class
flares. Region 3634 produced an impulsive M2.3/1b at 15/0842 UTC. Region
3639 grew in sunspot count and area. Slight growth and consolidation was
observed in Regions 3634 and 3641 (N11E06, Dao/beta). New Regions 3642
(N18W04, Cao/beta) and 3643 (S10E70, Dao/beta) were numbered this
period.

A faint CME was observed off the NE limb at 14/1124 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery related to a C5.0/Sf flare at 14/1101 UTC from Region 3636
(S21E27, Cso/beta). Analysis of this event suggests a component  will
interact with Earth late on 17 through 18 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 15-17 Apr.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 17 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels. Total field ranged
from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speed
weakly varied between 350-400 km/s. Solar sector was in a predominately
negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced on 15 Apr due to
the anticipated arrival of the 12 Apr CME, in addition to CH HSS
influences. Solar wind parameters are expected to recover to nominal
levels on 16 Apr. By mid to late on 17 Apr, solar wind conditions are
expected to become enhanced due to the anticipated arrival of the 14 Apr
CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor)
storming likely, on 15 Apr due to the passage of a CME from 12 Apr
combined with CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected
on 16 Apr increasing to unsettled to active conditions on 17 Apr due to
CME effects.