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000
FXUS63 KDMX 141733
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue into Monday.

- Thunderstorms expected at times from Monday night through
  Tuesday. Some severe storms remain possible with large hail
  and locally heavy rainfall the primary threats late Monday
  into early Tuesday and all hazards possible on Tuesday late
  morning into early evening.

- Breezy to gusty winds return late Monday through Tuesday.

- Gradual cool down mid to late week with highs back in the
  50s. Morning lows do fall into the 30s next weekend, so you
  may want to hold off on planting your annuals!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today:

Shortwave moving through MN into WI did help kick off a few storms
in southern MN early in the overnight hours which brought some
lightning into our far northeast area. A few rain showers have moved
into parts of northwest to northern Iowa as well since then but very
dry profiles have made it difficult for the rain to reach the
ground. Outside of the brief cloud cover this morning or a few rogue
sprinkles, today will be a similar nice day to Saturday with warm
temperatures within a few degrees of Saturday high temperatures.
Although a cool front will move through the state this morning,
temperatures behind the front are within a few degrees ahead of the
front so the main change today will be the wind shift to out of the
north to northeast. Ahead of the front, temperatures overnight have
been warm for mid April and in the 50s to 60s which will help allow
temperatures to reach similar highs in the 70s to 80s despite the
slightly cooler air. Another quick-moving high pressure will drift
through the region tonight sending lows back into the 40s. Winds
will also be lighter today which will help mitigate any fire weather
concerns despite the otherwise warm, dry conditions. Enjoy it why
you can with rain/storms returning to the forecast to start the
work week!

Monday and Tuesday:

Synoptic models remain in good agreement with the progression of the
closed upper low as it moves from the Four Corners region around 12Z
Monday, crossing through the central Midwest into early Tuesday,
before lifting northeast and crossing through the state Tuesday into
Wednesday. The developing surface low Monday east of the Rockies
becomes nearly stacked with the upper low on Tuesday across Nebraska
before crossing into Iowa. Although overall agreement amongst the
model suite is pretty good, some subtle differences remain in the
exact track of the surface low and in turn the location of the warm
front, keeping some spatial uncertainty (location) in the overall
severe threat Tuesday, as noted in the previous discussion. Back to
Tuesday in a moment. Ahead of the approaching system, winds will
turn from out of the east to start the day Monday to be out of the
southeast by around midday. This will result in another warm day
Monday as warm air advection increases again and highs reach into
the upper 70s to low 80s before cloud cover starts to increase in
the afternoon. Did stay towards the lower end of guidance for highs
at this point with the increasing clouds across the south Monday
afternoon, but may need to trend warmer if cloud cover is slower to
move in. Moisture advection with an open gulf really takes off after
21Z Monday, aided by the low level jet, with ample dry air remaining
in forecast soundings until at least 00Z far south and later the
further north you go. As a result, storm chances don`t really start
until after 00Z Tuesday with the SPC Day 2 Slight Risk (Level 2 out
of 5) in southwest Iowa, Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) through much of
the rest of the CWA, mainly a Monday evening into the early
overnight hours Tuesday storm threat timeframe. These storms would
then be offset from peak heating keeping the primary threats large
hail and locally heavy rainfall with the better tornado threat
mainly southwest of the area where surface-based convection is more
likely to be realized in proximity of the warm front which will be
lifting into the area Monday night into early Tuesday before
stalling out. Winds in general will be on the increase Monday
afternoon into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens so gusty
winds are expected later Monday through Tuesday in addition to any
rain/storms. The later onset of the highest winds Monday afternoon
will help mitigate any fire weather concerns despite the otherwise
warm and dry conditions.

The warm, moist air remains into Tuesday with the location of the
warm front expected to be the prime location for new storm
development around peak heating Tuesday. Some caveats remain in the
overall storm threat Tuesday like if morning cloud debris/lingering
convection from the overnight can move out with some
clearing/destabilization taking place prior to round 2. There is
overall pretty good agreement with the dry slot nudging into western
to central Iowa through the morning to early afternoon hours
Tuesday, but extent of cloud cover does remain an area of
uncertainty. With the jet max overhead around peak heating Tuesday
and a dry line likely arching south of the warm front all hazards
are on the table with some significant severe weather not out of the
question as detailed in the SPC Day 3 Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of
5). Some changes may still occur as additional mesoscale details
come into focus so continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

Outside of the severe threat, rain amounts still look like a pretty
widespread 1-2" as noted in the mean ensemble 48-hour QPF, with
25th-75th percentile amounts ranging from 0.75"-2.5", which is
certainly welcome considering the ongoing drought.

Wednesday and Beyond:

As the system departs on Wednesday, flow will become out of the
northwest ushering in cooler air which will remain in place through
the rest of the week. Some rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms
will also continue on Wednesday before finally clearing out on
Wednesday night. Another system looks to move through on Thursday,
mainly south, with a dry forecast prevailing beyond. High
temperatures look to be in the 50s through the rest of the week
and weekend, but morning low temperatures drop to the 30s next
weekend so you may want to hold off on planting your annuals
during the warmth today given some frost/freeze concerns for any
susceptible plants next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Few concerns next 24 hours. Mixing through 00z has increased
gusts to near 20kt at times today and will subside near 00z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions through period with increasing east
southeast winds/gusts aft 15z. Overnight will remain light/var
becoming more east by 12z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...REV