565
FNUS73 KDMX 011231
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Oxbow Bottoms Rx...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
731 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions to start the day along with westerly winds at 5 to
10 mph. Winds gradually shift through the day, turning to our the
north this afternoon and eventually easterly by tonight. Min RH
values bottom out in the 30 percent range as temps warm to near 70
this afternoon. Low chances for isolated showers through the day,
but the bulk of the wetting rainfall ahead should wait until
chances for showers and thunderstorms increase by late afternoon
and evening, continuing overnight into Thursday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    north 9 to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph shifting to the north
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (47200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  69  59  56  61  61  63  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  61  63  66  68  71  71  71
RH..............58  51  46  41  37  34  32  32
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..14  13  13  13  10  10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.18  17  17  17  15  15  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.17  18  17  17  14  13  9   9
GFDI............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100025  31  41  47  38  33  24  26

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    rain showers with thunderstorms likely
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    east 12 to 16 mph late in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 15 mph shifting to the east 14
                    to 23 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........68     58     68     74     82     90
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Temp............70     65     58     55     55     54
RH..............33     45     57     66     69     74
20 ft wind......N 8    NE 8   NE 10  E 13   E 13   E 15
20 ft wind gust.12     12     15     17     18     21
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   500    600    600    600    900
Transport wind..N 9    NE 9   E 14   E 14   E 18   E 22
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index....5      5      5      5      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100018     4      7      7      10     16

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers with
                    thunderstorms likely.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 17 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    south late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 23 to 29 mph shifting to the south 18
                    to 21 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (33300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........91        93        93        89
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY    LIKELY
Temp............53        57        63        65
RH..............80        80        84        90
20 FT wind......E 17G24   SE 18G26  SE 18G25  S 16G23
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      1400      1400      1300
Transport wind..E 23      SE 26     S 24      S 21
GFDI............0         0         0         0
Haines index....3         2         2         3
SDspl kt-ft/100020        33        30        23

$$
Forecaster...Martin
Requested by...Blaine Becker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412891.0/DMX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL blaine.becker@dnr.iowa.gov