Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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745 FXUS63 KDVN 110549 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1249 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clouds will continue to decrease from north to south through midnight, allowing for a viewing of the northern lights. - Warmest day in the next week will be Sunday with highs in the 80s. - Active long term as a series of waves makes its way through the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mostly to party sunny skies were found across the area this afternoon. Temperatures in the mid to upper 60s were found area-wide. North of the area, another wave started moving into MN and N WI. A cold front with this wave was being pulled south into the area. This will serve as the main forecast problem in the short term. Two main things of interest are the chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening and how fast do clouds clear out after the cold front. Cold front timing and shower/storm timing have been rather consistent. Expect most of the showers/storms to enter the area between 01 and 02Z and exit our southeast by 05z to 07z. Clouds should clear quickly after the front moves through as drier air moves into the area. We currently have a clear forecast and I expect that to continue. That said, some CAA CU over MN behind the front does make me a little nervous, especially if it decides to turn to stratus, we could be out of luck with sky cover tonight. I do not see this happening, but we need to keep an eye on it as it would be the only way we aren`t clear. This evening, CAPE does build ahead of the front as dewpoints in the 50s start to pool ahead of it. This will help to develop thunderstorms, as the front moves south, cooling after the sun sets, should lead to a decrease in overall CAPE. This means the best chance for thunder will be across the far north as the showers and storms enter. With dry low levels, inverted V soundings are indicative of gusty winds with these showers. Wind gusts to 45 mph cannot be ruled out. With a decrease in CAPE overall risk for severe weather is so low that it doesn`t warrant a mention in the HWO. After this, a quiet Saturday is expected with similar temperatures to today. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Period will start out with short-lived ridging as a SW wave pulls warmer air into the area for Sunday. Temperatures into the low 80s are currently forecast. After this, guidance slowly brings this nearly cut-off SW wave across the area leading to an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances. Sunday afternoon we could see scattered showers and storms. While CAPE up to 2000 J/kg are possible, the shear is rather weak at 20-25 kts of deep layer. This suggests a multicell type of thunderstorm environment with strong storms. With the large T/Td spread could possibly see some strong to near severe gusts, especially if we can get that 2000 CAPE to develop. Tuesday On: There is uncertainty on how fast the rain moves out with most of the models lingering it across the south through Tuesday morning. Generally, we`ll be looking at a more tranquil pattern later Tuesday into Wednesday as a backdoor cold front advects in a cooler and drier air mass from the NE. NBM highs may be too warm for Wednesday, and latest trends in the deterministic models is to delay the next round of showers and storms until Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 High pressure will lead to prevailing VFR through Saturday. Light WNW to NW winds overnight will increase and gust 20-25 kts during the day on Saturday. No precipitation is expected through the period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...Uttech