137
ACUS01 KWNS 150049
SWODY1
SPC AC 150047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind or hail remains possible across parts of the
Southeast and Plains states into this evening, and in north Florida
overnight.

...Synopsis...
A weak surface low continues to linger across the Southeast, with
scattered thunderstorms ongoing amid a moist, marginally unstable
airmass. With the onset of nocturnal cooling, these storms should
continue to weaken through the evening. In the meantime though,
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40 kts of effective bulk shear may support
an additional damaging gust or instance of marginally severe hail.
An additional round of storms may also develop late tonight across
northern FL, perhaps accompanied by a severe hail threat. However,
convective overturning from earlier storms has stabilized the
airmass, so confidence in this scenario is not overly high. Finally,
clusters of thunderstorm are still in progress across multiple
portions of the Plains states. Though deep, the boundary layer
remains unstable ahead of these storm clusters. Until nocturnal
cooling diminishes severe potential, an isolated severe gust or
instance of hail is possible over the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 05/15/2024

$$