National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS22 KWNS 140707
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS....

...Synopsis...
An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and
eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As
large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak
move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to
rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and
the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds
over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying
fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized
extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday.

...High Plains...
As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt
mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The
rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow
downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near
100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible
behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced
momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are
also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of
the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with
strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support
ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and
western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX.
Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as
strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme
conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS
and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest
flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional
surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few
hours during the afternoon.

While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area,
substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of
fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position
of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread
among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the
eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in
future outlooks.

..Lyons.. 04/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$