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000
FXUS66 KEKA 261154
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
454 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Rain showers will continue across the area today.
Tonight chilly temperatures are expected with some of colder
valleys seeing frost. Showers are possible again Saturday
afternoon. Generally dry conditions and below normal temperatures
are expected Sunday and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper level trough over the west coast continues
to bring showers to the area this morning. Rainfall amounts have
been the highest in the mountains of Humboldt and Del NOrte
counties with around a half inch reported from 10pm to 4am.
Farther south and east rainfall amounts have ranged from a trace
to a tenth of an inch overnight. These showers are expected to
continue through the afternoon, mainly in Humboldt and Del Norte
counties. NBM thunder probabilities were showing a 10 to 15
percent chance of thunder this afternoon across the interior, but
instability looks shallow so kept it out of the forecast. This
afternoon northwesterly winds will start to pick up across the
area, but mainly in Mendocino and Lake counties. Gusts of 25 to 35
mph are likely over the higher terrain and wind prone in these
areas.

Tonight will be chilly with the cool airmass in place over the
area. H850 MB temperatures will be just below freezing. This will
likely allow frost to form in the valleys that clear out tonight.
Confidence is low on exactly where this will occur, but Trinity,
Mendocino, and Lake counties have seen the least rain so will be
the most likely to remain clear tonight. Freezing temperatures are
possible, but for now have just issued a frost advisory for
portions of these counties. This may need to be adjusted based on
cloud cover and dewpoint trends this afternoon and evening.

As the upper level trough moves out of the area zonal flow sets
up. The newer model runs are now showing a shortwave moving
through this zonal flow Saturday afternoon bringing some light
rain to Humboldt and Del Norte counties once again. Amounts look
to be less than tenth of inch. These clouds will likely linger
through the night and keep temperatures from dropping as low
overnight.

Sunday and Monday zonal flow is expected to persist in NW
California. This is expected to keep temperatures below normal
and some clouds in the coastal and near coastal areas. Frost is
possible each night, but will be highly dependent on cloud cover.
It is certainly possible another shortwave will move through this
flow and bring some light rain. Tuesday and Wednesday it looks
like the temperatures will start to warm back towards normal with
the NBM showing temperatures back in the 70s. However, one or two
of the four ensemble clusters are showing the upper level trough
sticking around and bringing continued cool temperatures. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...Coastal Terminals: Light winds out of the west with
light rain showers continuing through the morning at KCEC. Ceilings
below 500 feet as stratiform rain and low level saturation linger
into the late afternoon. Short periods of lifting could bring sub
1000 foot cloud base but most of the improved flight categories
will come this evening after 5pm. Similar IFR/LIFR conditions are
expected at KACV. Drier flow can be seen in the water vapor image
as well as shallower saturation in the model soundings. Periodic
showers will continue at KACV into the early evening as flight
conditions will improve to MVFR, though improvements will be
inconsistent.

UKI: Winds are from a more northerly direction and will produce
gusts later this morning which will last into the afternoon.
Ceilings below 2500 feet will eventually lift by the late afternoon
to around 5000 feet. Model soundings show saturation near the
tarmac, if skies clear as expected this evening there could be fog
or mist as a hindrance to visibility.

&&

.MARINE...Westerly winds at a light to gentle breeze in the northern
waters will last through the weekend with a persistent NW swell at 9
seconds, 6 - 7 feet in height. A longer period W swell at 14 to 15
seconds will arrive Saturday with waves 2 - 3 feet high. Otherwise,
a moderate to fresh breeze in the southern waters and steep to
square waves will bring conditions in and out of small craft
advisory criteria, tonight through Saturday. Larger combined seas
are expected early next week around 10 feet in height with steep
dimensions. /EYS

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ107-
     108-110-111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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