650
FXUS64 KEWX 061925
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
225 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Latest visible satellite images are showing some breaks in the cloud
coverage along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains areas early this
afternoon. Also, the combination of satellite images with surface
observations reveal the position of the dry-line which extends from
the Texas panhandle to the south and over Val Verde County. The dry-
line is forecast to push slowly to the east and over the Rio Grande
and southern Edwards Plateau for the rest of this afternoon before
pushing back to the west of the local area. With that said, expect
mostly sunny to sunny skies across a good portion of the Rio
Grande/southern Edwards Plateau and partly cloudy skies elsewhere.
Highs are likely to range from the low to mid 80s across the Hill
Country, along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. There is a
slight chance to low end chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms especially along the I-35 corridor this afternoon
where elevated pwat values and highest dew-point temperatures
reside. If this activity manages to develop, we could see a quick
downpour or two with gusty winds and can`t rule out hail. Thus far,
cap looks to be holding off pretty well.

Low clouds return and spread across the local area tonight into
Tuesday morning. Patchy to areas of fog are expected to form
overnight and remain through mid Tuesday morning. One of the areas
to possible be impacted with patchy dense fog could be parts of
Bexar County and nearby counties to the north and west. Overnight
lows forecast ranges from the upper 60s over a few locations across
the Hill Country with the rest of the local area in the low to mid
70s.

The dry-line is forecast to push into the Hill Country, over
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande on
Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to reach the upper 80s to
upper 90s across those areas while areas along and east of I-35 and
Coastal Plains stay in the low 90s. We are not expecting any type of
showers or storms for Tuesday across the local area as an upper
level zonal flow takes control.

Once again clouds come back for Tuesday night with overnight lows in
the 70s for the most part. Dry weather pattern continues through
this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The upper level flow over TX will be southwesterly with a deep upper
low over the northern Plains at the start of the long term period.
The low level flow will continue from the south to southeast. Dry
weather will continue Wednesday. Temperatures will climb a few more
degrees to well above normal. Record highs are possible along the
Rio Grande Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will move through
South Central Texas Thursday. This will only bring a slight chance
for rain to the northeastern part of the CWA. More significantly it
will bring relief from the heat. Highs behind the front will be 10 to
15 degrees cooler Friday. The cooler temperatures will continue over
the weekend. A second upper trough will develop on the backside of
northern Plains low and swing through the southern Rockies into the
southern Plains over the weekend. This may produce enough lift to
combine with daytime heating to generate convection each afternoon
Saturday through Monday. However, given the drier airmass POPs only
reach 20% each day and most places will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

MVFR cigs are forecast for the area terminals at least through
21Z with KDRT reaching to VFR between 19Z and 20Z. VFR conditions
are expected to stay through this evening with cigs and vbsys
lowering to MVFR/IFR overnight into at least mid Tuesday morning.
Showing VCSH for the I-35 corridor sites for this afternoon as hires
models are producing some light to moderate echos and even a few
storms. This scenario depends in cap inversion breaking. Otherwise, a
dry forecast for the tonight into Tuesday period. There are some
hints of LIFR for KSAT and KSSF around the 10Z to 15Z time frame.
Stay tuned for future updates as far as this possibility. Southerly
winds 10 to 12 knots for the rest of this afternoon and early evening
and 10 knots or less tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  91  73  92 /   0  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  91  72  92 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            71  88  72  92 /  10  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  99  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  89  72  90 /  10  10   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  93  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  91  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  89  74  91 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  92  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  94  74  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...05
Aviation...17