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000
FXUS64 KEWX 242341
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
641 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Moist low-level flow off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to
strengthen through the period as surface low deepens across the mains
in response to an ejecting upper level disturbance. The short term
period should be largely uneventful from a weather standpoint as
much of the forcing (both at the surface and aloft) associated with
this low will be to the north of our area. Nevertheless, indications
are isentropic lift tomorrow morning could be strong enough to help
produce patches of drizzle across much of south-central Texas, and
some 10-15% PoPs have been added into the forecast to account for
this. Some patchy fog will be possible as well, though the elevated
wind speeds should largely prevent this. Otherwise, the tail end of
convection developing along a dryline across N/W Texas tomorrow
afternoon/evening could reach northern portions of the CWA Thursday
night into Friday morning, so there are low PoPs in the forecast for
that timeframe to account for that potential. Any storm that is able
to make it into the CWA will have the potential to be strong to
severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary
threats. Otherwise, warm, muggy, and mostly cloudy conditions will
continue through the period, though a steady southeast breeze may
make it feel a bit more comfortable than it would without it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

At the start of the long term period, a large trough will be centered
over the Intermountain West, with a series of shortwave disturbances
swinging through South Central Texas within the large scale
southwesterly flow. A potent 500mb vort max will become negatively
tilted over northern Kansas/southern Nebraska, which will in turn
allow a dryline to sharpen over our CWA. This dryline will continue
to wobble back and forth over the Rio Grande Plains and Edward
Plateau Friday, becoming the primary focus for showers and isolated
strong to severe storms Friday morning through the early afternoon.
At this time, the focus for severe weather looks to be farther north
into the Fort Worth CWA, closer to the upper level forcing, however,
we may see some large hail and damaging wind during the day Friday.

Saturday will be a very warm to even hot day, especially over the
Rio Grande Plains, where afternoon highs will be pushing the century
mark at Del Rio, Eagle Pass, and Faith Ranch. As southerly flow
increases out ahead of a strengthening trough over the Four Corners,
the dryline will sharpen up once more, leading to increased chances
for showers and storms with isolated strong to severe storms
developing late Saturday night over the Hill Country and sliding
south and eastward through Sunday morning. As of this writing, if the
trough manages to slow down a bit, the severe threat would certainly
increase as storms would form during peak heating Sunday afternoon.
However, for now, the threat appears to be weighted more towards
heavy rainfall. Integrated Vapor Transport and PWATs are fairly
impressive, but not particularly strong for late April/early May.
Storms may try to redevelop Sunday afternoon, but it will be highly
dependent on the timing of morning convection and whether we can
destabilize once again by the afternoon hours.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern remains active, but messy to say the
least. Global models are in agreement on active weather with
continued rain chances, but as far as pinpointing particular
locations, there is little certainty through the remainder of the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Deep onshore flow should gusty winds in the evening with a slight
lowering of winds to allow MVFR cigs to develop again by late evening
over I-35. DRT should also see this lowering but by about 3 hours
later. All sites will have a chance to see some patchy drizzle or
sprinkles with the help of an increasing nocturnal LLJ. Not confident
on this forecast cycle or whether or not the surface winds decouple
enough to get LLWS. After the period of drizzle chances and IFR cigs,
more gusty winds in the late morning hours will lift skies back to
MVFR and eventually VFR in the mid afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  84  71  84 /  20  20  10  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  83  70  83 /  20  20  10  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  86  71  86 /  20  20  10  40
Burnet Muni Airport            68  82  69  82 /  20  20  20  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  92  74  97 /  10  10  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  83  69  82 /  20  20  10  60
Hondo Muni Airport             69  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  85  69  84 /  20  20  10  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  83  72  83 /  20  20   0  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  86  70  85 /  20  20  10  40
Stinson Muni Airport           71  87  72  87 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...27
Aviation...18