Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
857 FXUS62 KFFC 291841 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 241 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Key Messages: - Showers and thunderstorms will return on Tuesday as a shortwave trough traverses the area. - A couple of stronger storms are possible, though a significant severe threat is not expected. Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and ridging aloft keep the area dry through the remainder of the day into tonight. That will begin to change in short order, however, as a shortwave trough approaches the area by tomorrow morning. An ongoing broken line of showers and thunderstorms will initially push into northwest Georgia during the predawn hours Tuesday and progress eastward through midday. Given fairly limited morning instability, CAMs generally support the notion of a gradual weakening trend through late morning. By afternoon, recovering SBCAPE should support the redevelopment of additional scattered and thunderstorms. HREF mean SBCAPE looks to max out over 1000 J/kg in Middle Georgia during the afternoon, potentially supportive of a few stronger thunderstorms. Weak shear and overall dynamics will limit the severe threat, but an isolated storm could potentially reach marginally severe limits and produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps small hail. Generally a quarter to half on inch rainfall totals are probable, though locally higher totals are possible within heavier thunderstorms. Activity will then gradually wane and depart eastward by the evening as the wave exits east. RW && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Key Messages: - Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the week into the weekend. The departing shortwave will give way to upper level ridging through the remainder of the work week. Other than isolated lingering showers and thunderstorms in the SE on Wed, this ridge should usher in a couple of days of dry weather. This will also be the warmest stretch of the long term period, with temperatures rising well into 80s across most non-mountainous areas. In fact, some locations will rise above 90 degrees (with the best chance on Thursday afternoon near and S of Macon). These highs will will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal. The ridge will begin to break down on Friday as a short wave moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The combination of the approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the area (with the best chances across N and N central GA. With the fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will still be about 5 degrees above normal. SEC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR cigs will prevail through this evening with SCT/BKN cu in the 4-6 kft range. MVFR cigs will become increasingly likely by 12-14Z at ATL area sites as SHRA begin to encroach from the west. Sct SHRA are expected into Tuesday afternoon with chance for sct TSRA likely maximized 17-22Z before ending from W to E. MVFR cigs likely transition to VFR by 18Z. SE winds will prevail at 5-10 kts through tonight before shifting to SW by 12-14Z. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence on Sun AM cigs and SHRA/TSRA timing. High confidence on winds. RW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 81 60 79 58 / 0 0 70 40 Atlanta 81 62 77 60 / 0 30 80 20 Blairsville 75 57 71 54 / 0 40 90 40 Cartersville 82 61 76 57 / 0 60 90 10 Columbus 85 65 82 62 / 0 10 70 10 Gainesville 79 61 75 59 / 0 20 80 30 Macon 83 62 82 61 / 0 0 70 30 Rome 83 62 77 57 / 0 70 90 10 Peachtree City 82 62 79 58 / 0 20 70 20 Vidalia 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...RW