777
FXUS64 KFWD 030442
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1142 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Saturday/

An active pattern is expected to continue across the Southern
Plains into the weekend with periodic storm chances through
Saturday. At this hour, a cluster of thunderstorms extends from
near Hillsboro south toward Lampasas and these should survive for
at least another hour or two given an unstable airmass. The main
threat will be some locally strong wind gusts and hail along with
very heavy rainfall through the rest of the overnight hours. For
the remainder of the night, storm chances will be highest just
downstream of the current convection with low probabilities of
additional storms developing.

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place on Friday
characterized by high theta-e air, weak capping, and generally
weak low level wind fields. The main driver for additional
convection will be a potential lingering outflow boundary from
current thunderstorms ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma.
The high-res guidance suggests that some of this convection will
spread south overnight and into our northeast counties by morning
with an outflow boundary pushing south toward the I-20 corridor
into the afternoon. In the absence of any strong forcing for
ascent, this remnant boundary or boundaries from tonight`s
convection would serve as a focus for additional storms Friday
afternoon. The favored area for this to occur would be east of
I-35. Additionally, the dryline should be displaced farther to the
west Friday afternoon where convection will likely develop across
West Texas. We`ll keep PoPs around 20% for most areas Friday with
the exception of our eastern/southeastern counties. These areas
may see a little better coverage of scattered storms.

Otherwise, we`ll be watching West Texas convection late Friday
evening as it makes a push toward our western counties. We`ll show
some slightly higher PoPs west of I-35 late Friday night for any
remnant activity that may approach. On Saturday, a weak front will
slide south through Oklahoma and into North Texas in conjunction
with an approaching upper disturbance. This increasing forcing for
ascent along with the front will likely lead to an increase in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. We`ll have generally high
PoPs across the region, but will refine the details over the next
24 hours. No widespread severe threat is currently forecast, but
the environment will continue to support a few severe storms with
a hail/wind threat. The flash flooding threat will be locally high
with any slow moving thunderstorms through the weekend.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 216 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024/
/Friday Night and Beyond/

Scattered thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline
west of our forecast area late Friday afternoon. Initial activity
will likely take on more discrete/semi-discrete supercellular
structures capable of producing all storm hazards. It is a bit
uncertain how far east this convection maintains into our area,
but a majority of the CAM guidance keeps at least a low end severe
weather threat along/west of Highway 281 late Friday evening
lessening in intensity as this cluster/broken line of
thunderstorms approaches the I-35 corridor during the overnight.

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas
Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the
frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday
afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for
scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually
moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front
acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater
rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20
Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall
event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest
a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this
stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient
instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near
the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday
afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will
provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity
into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional
development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and
damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some
low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a
low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35
as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely
dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any
lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system
entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could
bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best
synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as
of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow
and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will
allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low
90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the
forecast over the next several days as we further refine the
details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

Convection is primarily south of the D10 airspace at this hour and
will likely remain there through the overnight hours. VFR cigs
will lower to MVFR later tonight and persist through the mid
morning hours before improving again. Thunderstorm coverage will
be scattered on Friday and likely favoring areas east of the major
airports through the afternoon. We`ll be watching West Texas
thunderstorm development late Friday as it makes a run for North
Texas overnight. An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected on
Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  83  69  80  68 /  40  20  30  60  60
Waco                66  81  68  79  68 /  30  30  20  50  50
Paris               65  80  65  79  65 /  50  40  20  60  50
Denton              65  82  66  79  66 /  30  20  30  70  70
McKinney            68  81  67  79  68 /  40  30  30  60  60
Dallas              67  84  68  81  68 /  40  30  30  60  60
Terrell             67  81  67  80  67 /  30  30  20  60  50
Corsicana           66  82  69  82  69 /  30  40  20  50  50
Temple              67  82  68  81  68 /  40  30  20  40  40
Mineral Wells       64  82  67  81  66 /  40  20  30  70  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$