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000
FXUS63 KGID 242048
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
348 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible (around a 20% chance)
  late tonight into Thursday morning mostly across north central
  Kansas.

- Severe storms are more likely (30% to 40% chance) Thursday
  evening and Thursday night. The main threats are large hail
  and damaging winds with a low threat of tornadoes.

- Strong to severe storms will remain possible (around a 20%
  chance) mainly Friday morning across eastern and northern
  portions of the forecast area.

- Rain and storm chances (up to 90% chance Saturday night)
  increase again over the weekend areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper ridge is over the Rocky Mountains and the plains states.
Southeast to south winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will be
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
(up to near 60%) will increase this evening into tonight. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s with
mostly cloudy skies and southeast to south winds.

Thursday and Thursday night...

An upper trough over the Rocky Mountains will begin to move over the
Central Plains on Thursday. Winds will be gusty out of the southeast
on Thursday. Upper lift and moisture will increase across the area
on Thursday leading to continued chances (up to around 75% chance)
of showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms may occur
early Thursday morning, especially across north central Kansas.
Another round of severe storms is more likely beginning late
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats, although there will be a low threat
of tornadoes. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to mostly
be in the 50s.

Friday...

The upper low/trough will lift northeast on Friday with showers and
thunderstorms continuing to be possible (up to near 95%). A marginal
threat of severe storms will remain for Friday, especially across
eastern and northern portions of the area. High temperatures on
Friday will range from the mid 60s to upper 70s. Winds will be gusty
out of the southwest to west on Friday as the upper low passes to
the north of the area. Wind gusts may get to over 40 mph across
portions of the area Friday afternoon.

Friday night through Tuesday night...

Light northwest to north winds will be present Friday night with
lows ranging from the low 40s to low 50s. Another upper trough will
begin moving over the Central Plains on Saturday with highs in the
mid 60s to mid 80s across south central and central Nebraska and
north central Kansas. Rain and storm chances will increase Saturday
evening as the upper trough moves closer to the area. Low
temperatures Saturday night will range from the lower 40s to mid
50s. Rain and storm chances will increase up to 90% Saturday night.
Winds will shift to the north as the upper low/trough moves
overhead. This will allow for cooler temperatures on Sunday with
highs ranging from the mid 50s to upper 60s. Temperatures are
expected to cool into the mid 30s to lower 40s Sunday night under
clearing skies. Temperatures will begin warming on Monday with highs
ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies. Low
temperatures Monday night are expected to be in the 40s with
southwest winds. The warming trend will continue into Tuesday with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with breezy southwest winds during
the afternoon. Low temperatures Tuesday night are expected to be in
the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Winds will remain out of the southeast with some gusts up to
around 20 knots likely this afternoon. Low ceilings are likely by
15z with wind shear possible around that same time. Showers are
also possible beginning at 06z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt