311
FXUS63 KGLD 280138
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
738 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing quarter to
  hen egg size hail remain possible through 800 to 830 pm MDT
  this evening, mainly in Decatur, Sheridan, Norton and Graham
  counties in northwest Kansas. Severe weather potential will
  decrease as storms exit the NWS Goodland county warning area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Elevated supercells that developed in vicinity of Decatur and
Sheridan counties ~600-630 pm MDT are ongoing (at 7 pm MDT)..
and have already produced hail ranging from 1 to 2 inches in
diameter. Severe weather potential this evening will decrease
as the aforementioned storms exit the NWS Goodland CWA around
800 to 830 pm MDT. A west to east instability gradient (ranging
from ~100 J/kg MUCAPE invof Hwy 83 to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE
invof Hwy 283 at 01Z) will gradually decrease this evening and
overnight. Additional storms may develop south of I-70 this
evening. While severe weather is presently not anticipated,
intensification is certainly possible as additional development
progresses east toward Hwy 283.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Hand analysis shows a surface low over southwestern Kansas,
southeastern Colorado, and the Oklahoma panhandle this afternoon.
The dryline appears to be situated to the west of Dodge City, with a
boundary located south of a line from Goodland to Norton to Smith
Center, Kansas.  This afternoon, the low is expected to lift further
to the northeast, bringing some chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity to the region.  Already, showers have developed across
portions of eastern Colorado, and they are expected to move in over
the next couple of hours.

As far as the severe weather threat today, there is some concern
that cloud cover and a fairly stable environment may inhibit daytime
heating across areas along and north of Interstate 70.  This lack of
heating could spare these areas from some of the risk of severe
weather. SBCAPE values may reach 500-1000 J/kg with MLCAPE values
around 500 J/kg. Lapse rates are decent for some hail if we can get
storms to initiate. For areas further south, near a boundary, a few
strong to severe thunderstorms may develop.  The main concern would
be hail, although wind and a few isolated tornadoes may also be a
concern.  Right now, the best chance for severe weather in the CWA
would be between about 4 and 9PM MDT.

The other interesting thing to note is that CAMs, the HRRR, and the
NAM Nest have been consistent over the past 24 hours in showing a
lone thunderstorm developing in southeastern Colorado and following
the boundary northeast, into the Goodland area.  This will be
something to keep an eye out for as we start getting into the mid-
afternoon hours.

Overnight, there remains a chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms across the region.  Through the course of this event,
there is the potential for some areas to see around a half inch or
more of liquid (thunderstorm dependent).  Some of these areas have
already received decent moisture from Thursday`s storms.  With the
additional potential for some rainfall, there is the chance that
some localized flooding may occur.

Sunday, the closed low will lift to the northeast, further over
northwestern Kansas and the Nebraska Panhandle.  Additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the afternoon
as the system lifts out of the region.  Precipitation is expected to
end from south to north during the afternoon.  High temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 50s for areas along and north of
Interstate 70, and the upper 50s to low 60s for areas south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A relatively calm pattern is expected in the long-term.
Northwesterly flow Monday will become zonal and eventually
southwesterly into Wednesday morning. We could see a weak shortwave
move through the area Tuesday night, increasing PoPs into the teens
across the northern CWA.

Tuesday afternoon is looking dry, with minimum RH values near
20% in Greeley county. Winds will be gusting around 15-20 kts,
leading to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.
Prolonged fire weather conditions currently look unlikely
(~10%), but cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday or Thursday looks like it will be the next chance at an
impactful event. A positively tilted upper-level trough will impact
the region in this timeframe. Details are very murky for this run of
model guidance, but PoPs are in the teens to 30s for Wednesday night
through Thursday. Storms are possible during this time, confidence
that severe weather will occur is less than 15%.

Lingering showers and low end storms will continue for the remainder
of the period, but may clear out sooner if the trough moves to the
east quicker.

Temperatures are forecast to warm up through Wednesday, mid 70s to
low 80s are expected. The current forecast has the cold front
coming through Thursday morning, so cooler temperatures will
result. Highs in the upper 60s for Thursday will result with
temperatures increasing about 5 degrees Friday. Overnight
temperatures will be fairly stable in the 40s, maybe upper 30s,
for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR to LIFR conditions associated with low ceilings and
occasional showers will prevail through the majority of the TAF
period at both terminals.. with N to NW winds at at 15-25 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent