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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222237
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
437 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible through this
  evening.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
  west of a line from Flagler to Cheyenne Wells.

- Chance for severe weather Thursday generally east of Highway
  25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Convergence along a cold front combined with weak wave aloft may
be enough to initiate a few showers or isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. However, instability is meager and
decreases rapidly by around 01z, so no severe storms expected
and only a few hundredths of precipitation in the limited areas
that see anything. Any lingering showers should end by midnight.
Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

On Tuesday, subtle ridging through the afternoon should keep it
dry, while upslope winds at the surface keep it a bit cooler,
with high sin the 60s to lower 70s. Weak disturbance cuts
through the ridge axis Tuesday night with scattered showers.
12-hour mean precipitation amounts by 12z Wednesday are less
than a tenth of an inch. Lows Tuesday night will again be in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday, a few showers may linger into the morning then
clearing. Flow is basically zonal over the top of a ridge
centered over the southern plains. Similar to Tuesday night,
another weak wave moves across the area Wednesday night as the
flow becomes more southwest. There are a few hundred joules of
MUCAPE to work with, so cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
lows in the 40s.

Thursday still on track to be the potentially busy day as a
negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts out of the southwest.
Still differences in track/timing, which would potentially
impact how this will play out. GFS has the trough cutting off
Thursday afternoon/evening in northeast Colorado, with trailing
front and dry line into the area which would be favored area for
convective initiation. West of the dry line it will be breezy
with possible fire weather concerns, though latest runs suggest
driest conditions may stay just west of the area. On the other
hand, the ECMWF solution is slower by about 12 hours, with the
upper low cutting off in a similar location Friday morning. This
would result in a lower risk of severe storms on Thursday
afternoon since the dry line is largely absent, although shear
will still be adequate for severe storms for the storms that do
develop. ECMWF main severe threat would be on Friday, and east
of the area, with the local area mainly seeing wraparound
precipitation. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s and
lows Thursday night in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

As the system from Thursday leaves the area, Friday will see
lingering showers and low-end storms, as well as breezy west-
northwesterly winds. Pressure changes with this system have become
fairly weak with this run of guidance. The big change is the second
low pressure system is looking to arrive earlier than previously
thought. Gusts on Friday seem to max out around 30 kts. The
lingering showers and storms will retreat to the north during the
evening and overnight hours.

Another low pressure system is forecast to move into the area
Saturday evening. There are two guidance suggested tracks that this
system will take. The first track is over our southeastern CWA. This
would give majority of the Tri-State area a decent chance as some
stratiform rain, with a few thunderstorms embedded within. The
precipitation would be primarily be from wrap-around moisture, and
gives us a chance (~5-10%) of seeing some snow mix in. The other
track is across the northwestern CWA. This would give us a favorable
setup for severe weather Saturday evening and overnight. The SPC
currently has a 15% outlook for severe weather southeast of the CWA
on Saturday. This looks to be mostly based on the first track, which
has shown up more often in previous model runs.

Pressure rises behind the front on Sunday are strengthening from 24
hours ago, but are not overly impressive. Gusty northwesterly winds
around 30 kts are currently forecast for Sunday.

Winds that will generally favor the north will cause temperatures to
struggle. Temperatures Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 80s
and, depending on the low pressure system and associated cold front,
Saturday`s temperatures look to range from the mid 60s to low 80s.
Sunday, the Tri-State area will all be around 70 and begin warming
up again Monday, up to the upper 70s. Overnight temperatures look to
cool into the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 432 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions remain forecasted for this TAF period. Watching
some virga and/or showers across the Palmer Divide move towards
the KS/CO state line. CAMS have been in relatively decent
agreement in them persisting across the area as dew points are
higher. Current highest confidence in any potential shower
activity looks to be for the KGLD terminal than the KMCK
terminal so will introduce a vcsh in the TAF. Winds will remain
easterly before briefly becoming northerly during the early
morning hours. A period of breezy winds gusting around 20 knots
at each terminal looks likely as well from sunrise through the
early afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg