National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHGX 210839
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
339 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

This weakening broken line of showers/thunderstorms currently nearing
the coast should be end of the organized activity for SE TX with this
system and its associated cold front. There could still be some isol-
ated showers through mid morning (from the 850mb front), but rainfall
amounts will be very light. Additionally, clouds will be slow to lift
and may not scatter out until late in the afternoon. And so, with the
overcast conditions persisting alongside the drier breezy N/NE winds,
the cool start of the day should lead to high temperatures likely re-
maining in the 60s this afternoon. Clearing skies and decreased winds
will help to give us lows ranging from the mid and upper 40s north to
the lower and mid 50s across the central/southern CWA tonight.

For Mon, surface high pressure in place over the region combined with
very flat/weak ridging at the mid/upper levels will keep things quiet
and dry across SE TX. Light NE/E winds will prevail with highs in the
lower 70s. Lows Mon night will be in the upper 40s and 50s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

By Tuesday, the eastward departure of high pressure will bring about
a lengthy period of onshore surface flow, resulting in a period
characterized by gradually increasing temperatures and moisture that
will ultimately culminate in a return to very warm and humid weather
by the beginning of the weekend. Daily high temperatures will
increase from the upper 70s on Tuesday to the low/mid 80s on
Thursday, with dew points concurrently rising into the mid 60s. By
late Thursday, a robust midlevel trough will swing into the Southern
Rockies and allow for strong lee cyclogenesis. Latest model guidance
continues to show the associated surface low deepening to near 990mb
by late Thursday/early Friday, resulting in a significant increase
in the strength of the surface pressure gradient. As a result, have
continued to side with the upper end of the most recent blend
solutions which indicate the potential for sustained winds of around
20 mph with gusts occasionally in excess of 30 mph by Saturday.
Maximum temperatures during this time will continue their increasing
trend, reaching the upper 80s (and perhaps scraping the 90-degree
mark in a few places) by Saturday afternoon.

Rainfall chances in the extended period will ultimately be limited
to isolated diurnally driven activity, aside from some limited
rainfall chances for the northern zones on Friday as a weak frontal
boundary stalls to our north.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms along and north of
the I-10 corridor should spread southward overnight into Sunday
morning. MVFR to IFR CIGS will accompany these showers and
storms. Guidance indicates that CIGS could briefly scatter out at
times over the next several hours, though cloud decks will largely
remain in MVFR to IFR flight levels. Shower and storms begin to
taper off after sunrise, with CIGS slowly lifting back to MVFR
levels during the late morning/early afternoon. Northeasterly winds across
the region will become gusty at times during the day on Sunday.
VFR conditions should return later in the afternoon, with winds
becoming light overnight.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Moderate to strong northeast winds will develop this morning behind
a departing cold front, and a few lingering showers and storms will
prevail through the early morning hours. Sustained winds of 20-25
knots and seas as high as 7 feet have prompted a Small Craft
Advisory through this evening. Winds and seas will diminish on
Monday, and onshore winds return on Tuesday. These onshore winds
will gradually strengthen over the course of the upcoming week,
perhaps strengthening as high as Advisory levels by the beginning of
next weekend.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  47  71  50 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  70  51  72  53 /  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  60  69  63 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>199-210>212.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ350-370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady