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000
FXUS64 KHGX 182043
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A cold front is currently making it`s way through north/north
central Texas this afternoon. This boundary is expected to stall out
somewhere around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area later this
evening. With the cap weakening and rising instability prior to the
front`s arrival, there is a chance that isolated storms may be
produced, few of which could become strong to severe. SPC currently
has the north/northwestern fringes of our CWA under a Marginal
(level 1/5) risk of severe weather late this afternoon/early this
evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat posed by these
storms, though large hail cannot be completely ruled out either.
Diminishing solar heating should reduce instability by the time the
front makes it out our area, hence why the severe threat remains low
at this time. Humid conditions can be expected overnight, with
isolated patchy fog possible heading into the early morning hours of
Friday. Lows for Friday morning will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s,
depending on where the frontal boundary stalls out.

Friday looks to be another warm, humid day with highs in the upper
70s to 80s. High resolution models hint at the potential for
isolated showers in areas south of the I-10 corridor during the
afternoon hours. While strong capping remains in place, lifting from
passing shortwave energy may be sufficient to produce light,
isolated showers underneath the cap. Ample moisture remains in place
for these showers as PWs range from 1.3-1.8 inches. Humid conditions
brought by the surplus of moisture will result in WBGT values
peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Those planning strenuous
outdoor activities should be mindful of this early season heat, as
the human body needs time acclimate to these warmer conditions.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be trending up as the
day progresses Saturday...and more so Saturday night. PW`s between
1.5-2.0" will be pooling across the area. Coupled with some weak
upper impulses moving overhead, look for some iso-sct activity
during the early part of the day. More widespread showers/tstm
development is anticipated later in the afternoon, especially
northwest of the I69-US59 corridor as larger scale lift increases
with the approach of the next trof and cold front. During the
evening and overnight hours, we`ll see the cold front moving into
the area. Flow aloft becomes fairly diffluent across northern
parts of the CWA...and generally parallel to the surface frontal
boundary. This favors some training/regenerating storms and the
potential for some locally heavy rainfall. Although all of the
region should see precip overnight, guidance continues to favor
locations generally north of a Brenham-Livingston line for the
potentially more significant rain totals. Just eyeballing
deterministic models, an average 1-3" might be anticipated there
(tapering down to <1" for metro/coastal areas). But, assuming fcst
environment doesn`t significantly change...this could be one of
those times where one could see much higher localized totals
depending on where the zone of diffluence sets up. In regards to
severe wx...overall instability is not looking very impressive.
Would be more concerned about heavy rain north of the Houston area
at this point moreso than severe storms.

The front clears the coast early Sunday and lingering rainfall
should mostly clear out during the mid morning hours followed by
some drier/cooler air filtering in.

Nice, mild wx is anticipated thru the remainder of the weekend
into early next week. Return flow sets back up along with a
corresponding warming/modifying trend and some low rain chances as
we head into midweek. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

South to southeasterly winds and VFR conditions can be expected
this afternoon. Isolated showers may develop in areas along and
south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, with the occasional
thunderstorm possible at times. MVFR CIGS fill back in this
evening as winds become light, potentially dropping to IFR levels
overnight into the early morning hours of Friday. Light patchy fog
may accompany these CIGS during this early morning period.
Conditions improve after sunrise with fog clearing and CIGS
lifting during the day. Areas along and south of the US-59
corridor could see VFR conditions return during the afternoon on
Friday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A continued onshore flow will persist into Saturday. Periods of
haze and fog can be anticipated though it is not expected to
become dense. The next cold front and associated showers and
thunderstorms will push off the coast late Saturday night and
Sunday morning followed by moderate northeast winds in its wake.
Onshore winds resume during the early to middle of next week.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  82  66  80 /  10  10  10  60
Houston (IAH)  72  86  70  82 /  20  10   0  40
Galveston (GLS)  72  79  71  77 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$