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000
FXUS64 KHUN 180614
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
114 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Low clouds have developed and/or overspread much of the area this
morning. The exception is far northeast AL which is the last
location yet to be clouded over. Thus, patchy dense fog has
developed in this area. At this point, expect the low clouds to
win out over fog the rest of the morning, but will keep a close
eye on it.

For today, the low clouds will eventually lift and scatter by late
morning or midday. Temperatures should warm rather quickly due to
heating and warm advection, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
as minor upper ridging translates east across the region. This
will be closely followed by a fast-moving low amplitude shortwave
crossing the MS river by mid afternoon. This wave is displaced
from the wave moving through the lower MO and upper MS valleys.
Initial clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon as the wave approaches, in combination with increasing
theta-E advection, mainly in northwest AL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The threat of a few strong to severe storms will increase this
evening as the shortwave moves into the middle TN and AL. Forecast
soundings indicate SBCAPE reaching 1500-2000 j/kg and 6km bulk
shear of 30-40kt should be sufficient for supercells with large
hail and damaging wind the main hazards. That`s round 1.

Round 2 may come very late tonight into Friday associated with a
cold front. If anything, bulk shear may increase to 40-45kt with
CAPE values potentially going above 2000-3000 j/kg ahead of the
front. The front and storms should exit before sunset.

With flow in mid to upper levels becoming more zonal over the
weekend, multiple weak shortwave impulses may bring a few showers
Saturday afternoon and night. The greatest chances of rain and
perhaps a few thunderstorms in our far southern counties will be
on Sunday as a more pronounced shortwave tracks east through eh
Gulf states. The highest chances for steady rainfall will be in
our southern counties, with lower chances in southern TN and far
north AL. And it will be a chilly rain at that, with highs only in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Monday will be dry but still cool with highs in the 60s as high
pressure at the surface overspreads the OH and TN valleys. Dry
weather should last through Tuesday with temperatures warming
back into the 70s. On Wednesday, upper troughing resulting from a
strong upper low in Quebec and Ontario, will bring a cold front
south through the TN valley. At this point, leaning toward a dry
forecast, but it is borderline and may need further changes later
if the models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low clouds and patchy BR and FG will keep flight weather
conditions MVFR and in some cases IFR through 16-17Z. Patchy FG
will reduce visibility to 1/2SM and less in some areas. Ceilings
will lift or scatter by 16-17Z, bringing back VFR conditions.
Scattered SHRA and TSRA will develop and move into northwest AL by
20Z and move east across the rest of north AL and southern middle
TN between 20-03Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17