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000
FXUS64 KHUN 111122
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

An upper level trough is forecast to continue to move eastward
through the TN Valley this morning before lifting northeastward.
Ahead of the main axis, a shortwave is forcing medium- high
chances (50-80%) of showers this morning. CAMs are indicating
these will continue through the early afternoon with the arrival
of the cold front, bringing risks of lightning and brief, heavy
rainfall. After the front moves through, there is a low chance for
redevelopment of showers behind it, however, confidence is low in
this at this time due to the potential lack of moisture
availability. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 60s under
broken to overcast cloud cover.

Our gradient (non-thunderstorm) wind threat continues to exist
through the early evening as winds are forecast to reach gusts up
to 35-40 mph in a response to a tightening sfc pressure gradient.
We have a Wind Advisory in effect through 22Z to account for this
threat. During this time, downed trees and power lines are
possible due to saturated soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Dry air is forecast to move in after the cold front, bringing a
return of clear skies and dry weather to the Tennessee Valley to
begin the weekend. Lows tonight are forecast to drop into the
40s with breezy, westerly winds up to 20 mph. Gusts pick up
Friday afternoon as a 50 kt LLJ on the back side of the upper
level trough influences the area. During this time, gusts are
forecast to reach around 30 mph, which is below Wind Advisory
criteria (35 mph gusts).

A warming trend begins as highs go from the 60s today and Friday to
the upper 70s on Saturday under the influence of upper level
ridging and sfc high pressure. Dry weather is forecast to persist
through this time period with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows
are forecast to be in the 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Upper level troughing over SE Canada into the eastern seaboard
will continue the process of heading more to east, as upper
ridging over the central Great Plains amplifies somewhat. Surface
high pressure situated over the Deep South Sunday morning, will
gradually build to the east, reaching the southeast coast on
Monday. Thus another sunny day starting the new week, with rises
in height and thickness values will bring even warmer conditions
across the Tennessee Valley. After lows in the mid/upper 50s, high
temperatures Sunday under sunny skies should warm into the lower
80s. A tad warmer Sun night with lows mainly in the lower 60s. A
southerly flow gradually returning moisture to the region will
start bringing more clouds as we go into the new week. Highs
Monday under partly cloudy skies should warm once again into the
lower 80s.

Enough moisture should result in more clouds than sky Tuesday onward.
Daytime heating and lift should return to bring lower end shower and
thunderstorm chances over our more NW locations Tue afternoon and
evening. Similar lower end rain chances are expected, again more over
the west and north portions of the area Wednesday and Thursday. But
with a warmer southerly flow, and despite the clouds and rain
chances, daily high temperatures in the Tue/Wed/Thu timeframe should
rise into the lower 80s each day. Lows should range mainly in the
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

As medium-high chances of showers continue to impact the TN Valley
through the afternoon/early evening, periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions will continue at both KMSL and KHSV. There is a low
chance ceilings lowering to LIFR this afternoon at KHSV.
Otherwise, winds should increase this morning to gusts around
18-19 kts and continue to gust through the day from the west.
These will vary in direction from SW to NW as a front moves
through the area.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...HC