Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 212359
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
659 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning over north
central/nw OK with a surface low down over central TX. Strong
upper diffluence has allowed showers to persist for areas
generally along and east of I-135 today.

Upper low will continue to slowly track east tonight into Sun
morning and by 12z Sun will be situated over far ne OK/nw AR. Even
though low will shift east, precip over eastern KS should continue
to lift north and eventually back to the west as the low passes to
the south. So will keep categorical pops in this evening for areas
generally east of I-135. Not expecting much in the way of thunder
as the better instability stays south. Areas generally along and
west of I-135 should stay dry tomorrow with scattered showers
expected to linger over southeast KS through most of the day,
coming to an end during the early evening hours.

GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the impulse
expected to dive out of the northern Rockies and into the high
Plains by Mon night. The GFS has come around to the ECMWF in
taking more of this energy further west which should result in
some sct showers and isolated thunder during the day Tue as the
front pushes through.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Medium range models continue to show another piece of energy
diving out of southern Canada and into the northern Plains by Thu.
There is some fairly significant differences between the models,
with the ECMWF taking much more energy west compared to the GFS
which results in the ECMWF generating precip Thu into Thu night.
Meanwhile, the GFS takes this wave into the Mid Mississippi
Valley. One thing that is for certain is that another cold front
will move through the area by late Thu night which will keep us
from getting into a warming trend and will also keep the better
moisture well south of the area. So severe storm chances the next
several days look low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

IFR-MVFR flight conditions are forecast at all sites overnight.
Light precipitation will generally remain along or east of KSLN-
KICT line. MVFR will likely spread into KRSL/KGBD/KHUT later
tonight, and potentially into KICT/KSLN by daybreak. KCNU should
deteriorate to IFR ceilings in light rain this evening. With
upper low gradually shifting east, slow improvement from west to
east is anticipated on Sunday. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Fire danger concerns will remain minimal through the next several
days.

For the first time in weeks, all of the area received some decent
rainfall which should help grasses green up a bit. A series of
cold fronts will allow near or below normal temps to remain in
place through the next 7 days. Northeast winds in the 10 to 15
mph range will be in place area wide for Sun and Mon and will turn
to the northwest for Tue, but will remain relatively light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  59  46  68 /  80  10  10  10
Hutchinson      42  60  44  67 /  50  10   0   0
Newton          43  59  44  66 /  80  10  10  10
ElDorado        43  58  45  67 /  80  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   45  59  46  68 /  90  20  10  10
Russell         38  61  41  68 /  40  10   0   0
Great Bend      39  60  41  68 /  40  10   0   0
Salina          41  59  44  69 /  80  10  10  10
McPherson       42  60  43  66 /  60  10  10  10
Coffeyville     51  60  48  67 /  90  60  20  10
Chanute         48  59  47  67 /  90  70  30  10
Iola            48  58  47  67 /  90  70  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    49  60  48  67 /  90  70  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...RBL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.