Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220507
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1207 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning over north
central/nw OK with a surface low down over central TX. Strong
upper diffluence has allowed showers to persist for areas
generally along and east of I-135 today.

Upper low will continue to slowly track east tonight into Sun
morning and by 12z Sun will be situated over far ne OK/nw AR. Even
though low will shift east, precip over eastern KS should continue
to lift north and eventually back to the west as the low passes to
the south. So will keep categorical pops in this evening for areas
generally east of I-135. Not expecting much in the way of thunder
as the better instability stays south. Areas generally along and
west of I-135 should stay dry tomorrow with scattered showers
expected to linger over southeast KS through most of the day,
coming to an end during the early evening hours.

GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the impulse
expected to dive out of the northern Rockies and into the high
Plains by Mon night. The GFS has come around to the ECMWF in
taking more of this energy further west which should result in
some sct showers and isolated thunder during the day Tue as the
front pushes through.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Medium range models continue to show another piece of energy
diving out of southern Canada and into the northern Plains by Thu.
There is some fairly significant differences between the models,
with the ECMWF taking much more energy west compared to the GFS
which results in the ECMWF generating precip Thu into Thu night.
Meanwhile, the GFS takes this wave into the Mid Mississippi
Valley. One thing that is for certain is that another cold front
will move through the area by late Thu night which will keep us
from getting into a warming trend and will also keep the better
moisture well south of the area. So severe storm chances the next
several days look low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Low confidence forecast. Observed flight conditions have been both
better than forecast overall and much more temporally variable
than previously anticipated so far this evening. Latest guidance
from models that are verifying best with current observations
suggest mostly VFR ceilings during the night outside of heavier
rain, but potential for transient MVFR or IFR conditions at all
sites. Still think KCNU will eventually go down to MVFR, if not
from ceiling, from visibility in heavier rain moving in. While
precipitation should end during the night at most locations,
moisture below 850mb will be slow to exit and expect stratocumulus
to linger throughout the day, except at KRSL/KGBD. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Fire danger concerns will remain minimal through the next several
days.

For the first time in weeks, all of the area received some decent
rainfall which should help grasses green up a bit. A series of
cold fronts will allow near or below normal temps to remain in
place through the next 7 days. Northeast winds in the 10 to 15
mph range will be in place area wide for Sun and Mon and will turn
to the northwest for Tue, but will remain relatively light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  59  46  68 /  90  10  10  10
Hutchinson      42  60  44  67 /  90  10   0   0
Newton          43  59  44  66 /  90  10  10  10
ElDorado        43  58  45  67 /  90  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   45  59  46  68 /  90  20  10  10
Russell         38  61  41  68 /  50  10   0   0
Great Bend      39  60  41  68 /  40  10   0   0
Salina          41  59  44  69 /  80  10  10  10
McPherson       42  60  43  66 /  90  10  10  10
Coffeyville     51  60  48  67 /  90  60  20  10
Chanute         48  59  47  67 /  90  70  30  10
Iola            48  58  47  67 /  90  70  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    49  60  48  67 /  90  70  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...RBL



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