Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS63 KICT 150156
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
856 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions
of south-central and southeast Kansas. Activity is becoming most
widespread across south-central Kansas and also along the Turnpike
corridor across the Flint Hills, as the increasing low-level jet
impinges on the nearly stalled ENE-WSW oriented synoptic front,
along with numerous outflow boundary interactions. Continued
strong instability coupled with weak yet adequate deep layer shear
will continue to support a threat for large hail and damaging
winds for the next few hours. Another tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, especially across far southern KS, due to increased
effective helicity from the stronger low-level jet. However, the
overall severe threat should gradually diminish with time as
updrafts merge and instability decreases through late evening.

Another round of non-severe showers/thunderstorms may develop
and/or move in from western KS overnight into early Tuesday
morning, as 850-700mb warm/moist advection increases ahead of
subtle shortwave energy approaching from the west/northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Early this afternoon, thunderstorms have begun to develop along
and south of a quasi-stationary front draped across the forecast
area. These storms have initially been in eastern Kansas, but as
convective inhibition continues to erode and enhanced convergence
ensues along the boundary, more storms are expected to initiate
this afternoon and evening. The primary threat area looks to be
south central and southeast Kansas, generally along and east of a
line from Kingman to Chase counties. This area is included in a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 1000pm this evening,
though it is possible that some showers and non-severe storms
could linger after this time frame initially along the Oklahoma
border and later in central KS. Main concerns with any severe
storms that develop will be large hail up to the size of ping-pong
balls, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall, with rain rates of near 2 inches per hour
already observed in a couple of cells that moved through Greenwood
and Woodson counties.

Current thinking is that the surface front will slide southward
tomorrow, which should push the development of severe storms
further south into central and western Oklahoma and northern
Texas, though a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in
southern Kansas. A strong storm or two will be possible, but
widespread severe weather is not expected by Tuesday afternoon due
to much more stable air over Kansas versus locations further
south.

Wednesday and Thursday become much more tricky as the front sinks
even further south and then lifts back north on Thursday as an
upper low continues to dwell over the Central Great Basin.
Overall, thinking is that we should see a shot at a few scattered
showers or thunderstorms, but exact timing and areal coverage is
dicey to say the least

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

By Friday, the upper low over the western CONUS is progged to
begin lifting northward through the weekend. Ample low level
moisture will continue to be advected into the area bringing
lingering chances of showers with occasional embedded thunder
off and on throughout the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures should remain above normal throughout the period
until at least Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 802 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Scattered shower/thunderstorm clusters will continue through the
evening, most widespread generally along and southeast of the KS
Turnpike. The strongest activity will be capable of large hail,
damaging winds, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.
Thinking storm intensity should tend to wane by late evening,
although persistent warm/moist advection due to increasing low-
level jet impinging on boundary across the area may lead to
additional shower/thunderstorm activity developing across western
KS and spreading east overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  82  64  82 /  60  30  40  40
Hutchinson      62  80  61  81 /  40  30  30  40
Newton          63  80  63  81 /  50  30  30  40
ElDorado        64  81  63  81 /  70  30  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   65  82  63  83 /  70  30  40  40
Russell         58  79  58  80 /  20  10  10  40
Great Bend      59  79  59  80 /  30  10  20  30
Salina          61  80  61  82 /  30  20  20  40
McPherson       61  80  61  81 /  30  30  20  40
Coffeyville     68  83  65  83 /  50  30  30  40
Chanute         67  82  64  83 /  70  30  30  40
Iola            65  81  63  82 /  70  30  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    68  83  65  83 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...ADK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.