Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 172101
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
401 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Thunderstorms, several of which are likely to be strong or severe,
continue to draw the greatest attention this afternoon.

The overall synoptic pattern is evolving as expected with weak mid
to upper-deck ridging centered over the Southern Plains, while two
weak mid-upper lows are positioned over the southeastern U.S. and
just N of the Great Basin. The latter mid-upper low is ejecting a
weak shortwave that is positioned close to the CO/NM state line
slowly E/NE. With the mid-level ridge slowly strengthening tonight
the shortwave would progress slowly, so thunderstorms that develop
over the Western Plains would remain W of the CWA for most of
tonight. Later tonight, the shortwave situated over NM/CO will
advance sufficiently to weaken the downstream ridge. This would
enable thunderstorms that develop across the Western Plains to
spread NE toward central & north-central KS late tonight & early
Fri morning. On Fri, the mid-level low parked over CO would eject
another weak shortwave across western KS, so thunderstorms would
redevelop over western KS & western Nebraska where they would
increase Fri night. As such, greatest chances for thunderstorms
remain along & west of I-135. The mid-level cyclone strengthening
on Sat, the thunderstorms would lift NE across northern KS & most
of Nebraska Sat & Sat night. The NE-moving mid-level cyclone will
bring a cold front across KS late Sat night which would become the
focus for rapidly redeveloping thunderstorms across primarily SE
KS. With deep-layer directional shear increasing, thunderstorms
that develop Sat night may be severe, especially over the Flint
Hills. Thunderstorms would diminish on Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Periodic thunderstorms are still anticipated for the neighborhood
throughout these periods. The greatest potential appears slated
for Tue & Tue night but details are sketchy at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period
with a developing southeast surface wind. Isolated elevated convection
is possible tonight/Friday morning for locations generally west
of a Salina to Wichita line, though for now will omit from the
terminals due to low coverage and probability of occurrence.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  85  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
Hutchinson      64  85  65  86 /  20  20  30  20
Newton          63  84  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ElDorado        62  84  66  89 /  20  20  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   64  85  67  90 /  10  20  20  10
Russell         64  83  62  80 /  30  30  40  30
Great Bend      63  84  62  81 /  20  20  40  20
Salina          63  84  65  86 /  30  30  30  20
McPherson       64  84  65  86 /  20  30  30  20
Coffeyville     61  85  67  89 /  10  10  20  10
Chanute         60  84  66  88 /  10  10  20  20
Iola            60  84  65  88 /  10  10  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    61  85  67  89 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED



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