915
FXUS63 KICT 021111
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
611 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal severe risk for severe storms today, early this
  morning in central Kansas and this afternoon east of the
  Kansas turnpike.

- Another chance for strong/severe storms Friday night and then
  again on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Lead convective line weakened as it moved into the Russell and
Lincoln Hill region of I-70 in central Kansas as of 07z.
Trailing line moving thru Hays area may also struggle to
maintain intensity as it runs into a bit more inhibition,
especially south of I-70. In this regard, whether convection can
develop further south into south central Kansas toward dawn is
questionable. Some of this may depend on trends in the
convection across central/southern Oklahoma. However with a
little diurnal heating by late morning into the afternoon expect
to see scattered to numerous showers/storms along the cold
front, mainly along/east of the turnpike. Moderate cape and
shear will support a few strong to marginally severe storms with
mainly wind/hail risk. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible
into early Thursday evening across southeast Kansas, especially
if the NAM/RAP are correct in a slower frontal passage and
maintaining southerly flow into/over the boundary a bit longer.
Deeper moisture only gets shunted just south of the area briefly
early on Friday before returning north during Friday afternoon
and evening, ahead of the next upper trof and associated surface
cold front. This will pose a better signal for a linear storm
mode to affect much of the forecast area as the front sweeps
southeastward late Friday night with mainly a marginal severe
wind risk. After some morning convection on Saturday, expect
mainly dry weather for Saturday afternoon with transient
shortwave ridging aloft.

Upper low will settle into the Great Basin late in the weekend
before lifting out across the Rockies and northern/central
Plains on Monday. High confidence on rather deep low level
moisture to be in place ahead of a sharpening/eastward advancing
dry-line into central Kansas during peak heating. This looks to
pose a legitimate severe risk again across the area, though
details on timing/orientation of the trof and wind fields aloft
are still questionable for pinning down storm mode, though will
no doubt be watched over the coming days.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered showers/storms will impact all sites except RSL and
GBD. Rain chances will end from west to east through the
afternoon/early overnight hours. A cold front was progressing
through central KS with MVFR CIGS behind its passage along with
gusty north winds. MVFR CIGS will scatter as the precipitation
ends along with winds become light and variable towards sunset.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB