Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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875 FXUS63 KICT 040800 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 300 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of central and eastern Kansas this morning. - Additional showers with embedded thunderstorm chances over mainly southern and southeast Kansas late tonight night into Sunday. - An outbreak of severe weather on Monday afternoon and Monday evening. - Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers and thunderstorms rolling eastward off the high plains continue to impact parts of central and eastern central Kansas early this morning. This activity is expected to fade as the LLJ weakens and veers during the morning hours. Seasonably cool air will overspread the area in the wake of a cold front with highs mostly in the 60s this afternoon. After a brief lull, another shortwave trough is progged to lift out of the Southern Plains bringing increasing chances for showers beginning during the predawn hours on Sunday. The NAM is much further north without much support from the other short range models but some modest pops were maintained into the day on Sunday. Limited insolation and a subtle increase in low level moisture may keep some areas from reaching 70 while seasonable values are expected in most areas with highs around 70. Strong or severe storms are not anticipated with this activity. As we move into Monday, a vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to move out of the Rockies emerging negatively tilted over the Central and Northern Plains late on Monday. Conditions continue to look favorable for a severe weather outbreak on Monday afternoon and Monday evening across the forecast area. The EPS/GEFS continue to advertise a vigorous upper jet nosing into Kansas late Monday with dewpoints near 70 progged in the warm sector. Shear/buoyancy profiles continue to support severe thunderstorms, some of which could be significant including supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes in the afternoon and evening hours along and east of the dryline impacting much if not all of our forecast area. Tue-Fri...The large-scale pattern continues to favor relatively tranquil weather after Monday across the region. A mean larger-scale trough is progged to remain situated across the northern tier stretching from the Northern plains eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes area keeping dry weather in place over the Central Plains. Above normal temperatures early in the week will cool with near normal conditions anticipated towards the end of the period. Dry weather conditions are expected to prevail through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Main aviation concern remains overnight storm chances. Cold front is currently making its way across the Central Plains and currently stretches from central Nebraska into northwest KS. Storms have developed along the front and will continue to track east/southeast. Currently expecting them to reach KRSL-KGBD in the 03-04z time frame and KHUT-KSLN-KICT in the 07-08z range. Strong wind gusts and hail up to quarter size look like the main threat with these storms. By 12z Sat, storms should be tracking through the Flint Hills and southeast KS. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...RBL