Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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415
FXUS63 KICT 251134
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
634 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Cool well below normal temperatures will prevail today as upper
level wave and associated rain showers move eastward. Clouds will
gradually erode from west to east with central Kansas seeing some
sunshine later this afternoon.

Meanwhile next upper level wave currently over British Columbia is
expected to affect the region on Thursday. The precipitation
signal with this system is much weaker compared to today`s upper
level wave. A cold front will push southward across Kansas for
Thursday afternoon/night. The airmass is not too terribly cold
behind the front, therefore daytime highs will only be slightly
below normal for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Confidence remains high that warm above normal temperatures will
prevail this period for Kansas, as models show a pattern change from
northwest flow aloft transitioning to deep southwest flow. This
pattern change will also open up the Gulf of Mexico with richer
spring-like moisture streaming northward into Kansas for next week.
The ingredients will be in place for thunderstorms and possible
severe weather to affect the southern/central plains. Latest long
range model projections are favoring a Tuesday-Thursday period
next week for possible occurrence, and this will be a period to
watch over the upcoming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

IFR/MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in rain will be most prevalent this
morning with gradual improvement as the upper low over Kansas
moves southeast into Arkansas by late this evening. Some patchy
MVFR fog vsbys are possible late tonight.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the region for the next
four days due to rainfall today, followed by lighter winds for
Thursday-Saturday. South winds will begin to increase for Sunday
into next week, however the low level moisture will also increase
which should raise the relative humidity levels. The grassland
fire danger levels could reach very high levels during the
afternoon hours on Sunday-Tuesday for mainly central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  41  69  40 /  80  10  10  10
Hutchinson      53  38  68  38 /  40  10  10  10
Newton          52  39  69  38 /  70  10  10  10
ElDorado        52  41  69  40 / 100  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   53  41  70  40 / 100  10  10  20
Russell         58  36  65  35 /  20   0  10   0
Great Bend      57  36  66  36 /  20   0  10  10
Salina          53  38  67  37 /  60  10  10  10
McPherson       53  38  68  37 /  50  10  10  10
Coffeyville     55  45  70  44 / 100  40  10  20
Chanute         54  43  68  42 / 100  40  10  10
Iola            54  42  68  42 / 100  40  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    55  44  69  43 / 100  50  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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