Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171702
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1202 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave tracking across central CA
with another upper circulation over extreme northeast KS/nw MO. At
the surface, lee troughing is starting to increase over the high
Plains with a weak surface ridge extending from the Mid
Mississippi Valley into the Arklatex region.

Short range models have been consistent in developing some
elevated showers/storms over western KS closer to sunrise. This
activity is expected to dive southeast and remain west of the
forecast area. The upper impulse over far northeast KS will slowly
sink south today and will keep isolated showers and storms around
over western MO and far eastern KS. Current thinking is that this
activity will stay east of the forecast area.

More robust afternoon convection is expected to develop out over
the High Plains today along a developing dryline. With upper flow
fairly weak, this activity will remain west through at least the
early evening hours with a chance it may make it into western
fringes after 9 pm, but is not expected to be severe. Shortwave
will track over the central Rockies and out into the High Plains
Fri evening. This will allow a surface low to deepen over
southeast CO/sw KS and also allow the dryline to surge out into
western KS. Afternoon storms are expected along the dryline Fri
with a chance some of this activity may flirt with the western
fringes of our forecast area Fri evening.

Dryline will become less defined on Sat and will morph into more
of a trough/weak cold front as it moves into central KS.
Meanwhile, warm front should be generally along the KS-Nebraska
border. Rich low level moisture will remain in place producing
very high CAPE values in the 3,000-4,000J/KG range. In addition, a
weak jet streak is forecast to lift out, which will provide 0-6km
shear in the 35-40kt range. Will go ahead and mention severe
storms in the HWO for the Sat-Sat night time frame.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Weak cold front is still expected to move through Sun. Not
expecting much along the front as the better upper dynamics stay
north of the area. Beyond Sun, forecast confidence in precip
chances drops off significantly. There is some agreement between
the ECMWF and GFS in a weak impulse lifting out of the desert sw
and across the southern Plains Mon. At the same time, a broad
upper low will slowly make its way on shore over CA. Several weak
upper perturbations are expected to lift out of the southwest
CONUS for the Tue-Wed time frame, but the timing of these features
will be difficult that far out. Since we never get rid of the low
level moisture, and capping remains minimal, any of these weak
disturbances should generate some showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period
with a developing southeast surface wind. Isolated elevated convection
is possible tonight/Friday morning for locations generally west
of a Salina to Wichita line, though for now will omit from the
terminals due to low coverage and probability of occurrence.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  65  86  67 /  10  10  20  30
Hutchinson      87  65  85  65 /  10  10  20  30
Newton          86  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  30
ElDorado        85  63  84  67 /  10  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   87  64  86  68 /  10  10  20  20
Russell         87  64  85  62 /  10  20  30  30
Great Bend      86  64  84  63 /  10  20  20  30
Salina          88  65  85  65 /  10  20  30  40
McPherson       86  64  85  65 /  10  20  30  40
Coffeyville     85  62  86  67 /  10  10  10  20
Chanute         84  60  85  66 /  10   0  10  20
Iola            84  60  84  65 /  10   0  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    84  61  85  67 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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