Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS63 KICT 151131
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
631 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Today & Tonight:
The greatest attention is that of record cold weather continuing
across the CWA. At 3 AM CDT, a strong sfc low was centered along
the NE MO/West-Central IL border while a sharp, inverted sfc ridge
was knifing straight S from the Western Dakotas to the TX
Panhandle. Both continue to operate in tandem to inject very cold
air into KS. Pronounced wrap-around associated with the cyclone is
also continuing to spread very low ceilings across nearly all of
the eastern half of KS. The cyclone`s trek across the Lower Great
Lakes will enable skies to slowly clear in a W-E manner today. The
slow clearing would inhibit warming across the CWA & with such a
cold start, more record lowest high temperature records may be
set. Gusty NW winds from 20-30 mph will also put a crimp into high
temperatures. The inverted ridge axis will be the dominant feature
tonight. Mostly clear skies and diminishing winds would set the
stage for more record low temperatures. For details, refer to the
".CLIMATE..." section that appears toward the end of this
discussion.

Mon-Tue:
Much warmer weather returns to the neighborhood as the sfc ridge
axis gets forced E by a sfc trough that`ll strengthen rapidly as a
sharp, upper-deck trof approaches the Central Rockies late Mon
night. As the trof continues it`s trek E, intense sfc cyclogenesis
would occur along the CO/KS border. The increasing S/SW winds will
induce very strong warm advection which would have grassland fire
danger implications. It`s conceivable that southwestern areas may
reach the upper 80s on Tue.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Wed-Thu Night:
An active, but rapidly progressive, pattern will dominate the
Great Plains. The intense western plains sfc cyclone will scoot E
across KS Tue night as the upper-deck trof surges E. A "modified"
cold front will then surge E/SE across KS Tue Night but doing so
in such a rapid manner would prevent sufficient moisture return.
As the pronounced upper-deck trof undergoes rapid cyclogenesis as
it crosses the Upper MS Valley on Wed, a sharp mid-upper ridge
would likewise surge across the Plains to keep dry weather intact.

Next Weekend:
Yet another upper-deck shortwave will approach the West Coast Wed
night. This character will undergo intense cyclogenesis as it
pushes E toward the 4-Corners region Thu & Thu night. With the
strengthening ridge axis situated from the Gulf Coast to Ontario,
the cyclone would likely cut-off close to the NM/CO border on Fri.
The much slower eastward transition of the overall pattern would
allow greater time for richer moisture to spread into the Southern
& Central Plains. As such, the chances for rain are increasing for
Fri-Sat evening. Appears we`re in for a soggy start to next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

MVFR cigs will linger through the morning hours before diminishing
from west to east through the day. Breezy northwest winds will
prevail through much of the day before rapidly diminishing by
early evening with VFR prevailing through much of the afternoon
and tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The record/near record cold dominating KS will keep the grassland
fire danger in check thru Mon Night. On Tue, grassland fire danger
concerns increase markedly as an intense sfc cyclone, situated
over the Western Plains, induces pronounced warm advection across
the state. A very high grassland fire danger is certain Tue
afternoon, especially across Central & South-Central KS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Temperature Records:

Coolest Highs (April 15th):

Wichita: 48 In 1951
Salina:  48 In 2011
Chanute: 47 In 1993
Russell: 48 In 2011

Record Lows (April 16th):

Wichita: 29 In 1953
Salina:  20 In 1953
Chanute: 24 In 1953
Russell: 21 In 1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    47  25  61  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      46  23  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          43  22  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        44  24  60  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   48  25  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         44  20  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      46  22  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          42  22  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       43  21  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     47  26  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         43  25  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            42  25  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    45  25  58  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...EPS
CLIMATE...EPS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.