Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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504 FXUS63 KICT 272019 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 319 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms likely through tonight, some of which will be severe. All severe hazards are possible. - Slight risk of a few severe storms eastern KS Sunday PM. - Off-and-on thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Thunderstorm mode has ended up being rather messy so far given meridional component to mid-upper flow, multiple storms on the scope, and multiple storm mergers. This should tend to limit how many storms are capable of "higher-end" severe weather. However, strong low and deep layer shear coupled with moderate to strong instability will continue to favor a severe weather threat, especially over southeast Kansas were the airmass has been relatively undisturbed (outside of dense anvil debris). In this area, favorable low-level shear, low-level instability, and low cloud bases will support tornadoes with any embedded supercell or QLCS structures. Damaging winds are also possible. The large hail threat (anything greater than golfballs or so) will likely be confined to cells that remain more discrete. Another area of concern is north-central Kansas, where a slowly northward retreating boundary is situated. Any cells that can become rooted along this boundary will ingest rich low-level shear along/just north of the boundary, and be capable of all severe hazards (including tornadoes). Additional storms may develop this afternoon-evening up and down the dryline across western portions of KS-OK, with this activity then tracking rapidly northeast. There`s some concern that current widespread storm coverage and associated dense anvil cirrus east of the dryline will limit instability and associated storm potential along the dryline. However, if storms are able to form, CAPE/shear combination will support all severe hazards with this activity, especially if storms can remain more discrete. A third round of storms may develop by later this evening over western and central portions of KS-OK, ahead of approaching upper forcing and mid-level cooling. The primary threat with this activity would likely be 60+ mph winds (if storms are able to become severe) given the stronger forcing and increasingly unfavorable hodographs. Another threat we don`t want to forget this afternoon through tonight is heavy rainfall and localized flooding, especially from roughly the KS Turnpike corridor on southeast, as numerous thunderstorms continue to train northeast. Pockets of 1-3+ inches are likely, and may fall in a short period. Consequently, areas of street and low-land flooding are likely, along with modest to sharp rises in area streams and rivers, again mainly along and southeast of the KS Turnpike. For Sunday, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible over eastern KS, generally along and east of the Flint Hills corridor, as the dryline continues to advance east. If a storm or two is able to form (they may struggle due to decreasing forcing), hail and wind would be the primary threats. Taking a look ahead...an off-and-on active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise looks to take shape once again Tuesday afternoon/evening through Thursday night. Stay tuned, as we continue to refine forecast details the next several days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Plenty of concerns with the terminals as return flow ahead of a wavy nearby frontal system and Rockies upper low were supplying ammunition for the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Non-convective low level wind shear along with gusts to 35 mph away from thunderstorms are also possible tonight along with poor flying conditions in convection. In addition, winds of over 50 knots, large hail and tornadoes are also possible. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ052-053-068>072- 083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...MK