Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 220845
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler on Saturday with temperatures in the 50s area wide.

- Very strong winds in excess of 45 to 50 mph becoming more
  likely on Sunday.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
  night through early Monday, with a brief transition to snow
  possible over parts of central Kansas early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024


An embedded/subtle shortwave rounded the western ridge early this
morning and will move over the region today driving a cold front
across the area. Areas of dense fog continues to impact portions of
south central, east central, and southeast KS this morning.

A cold front will be on the doorstep of central KS by sunrise and
will swiftly move southeast across the area today. Expect gusty
north winds in the wake of the cold front. A few stronger gusts of
30 to 40 mph will be possible behind the front with elevated winds
lingering into the early evening before diminishing tonight. With
cool air advecting across the area today, high temperatures will be
knocked down into the mid 50s across central KS. The later arrival
of the front will allow for temperatures in far southeast KS to
climb into the upper 60s to near 70. Can`t rule out a brief shower
or weak storm across southeast KS this afternoon with 500J/kg ML
CAPE in the area. No strong or severe storms expected.

Tonight, a system over the Pacific NW will start to amplify into a
west CONUS trough, while slowly pushing south. A strong (160-175kt)
west-east jet streak will help broaden out the base of the
developing western trough, with the left exit region overspreading
the area thru the weekend. The 250mb jet dynamics will couple with a
stout 60kt 850mb jet to enhance ascent across the area bringing
increased chances (50-75% chance) of precipitation to the area.

Wind concerns for the weekend: Lee troughing will begin to ramp up
across western KS tomorrow with a sfc low forming by tomorrow night.
The sfc pressure gradient will only tighten across the region as the
sfc low strengths with eastern edge of the broad trough/lead wave
approaching for Sunday. There is increasing potential to see strong,
if not severe, non-thunderstorm wind gusts Sunday of 45-60 mph.
Soundings indicate 50 to 60kts of flow at 900-850mb which will be
mixable down to the sfc by the afternoon and early evening hours
Sunday. NBM probability of exceeding 50 mph is nearly 99%
across much of central, south central KS and portions of the
Flint Hills. When moving up to 58mph, probability of exceedance
drops significantly across much of the area with only portions
of central KS west of I- 135 with exceedance probabilities
ranging from 40-65%. Further support, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index highlights a shift of tails over the region for wind
gusts, highlighting the rarity of the forecast.

The lead wave through the broad based trough will eject out
over the Central Plains late Sunday afternoon/early evening. A
few severe storms will be possible, however there remains some
uncertainty there depending where the dryline lines up late
Sunday and how quickly any storms grow upscale given the
significant large scale ascent.

Winter weather Monday in central KS? Low confidence in any winter
concerns on the backside of the system for early Monday morning.
Surface temperatures in the 25-75th percentiles range from 29 to 35
degrees. Best chance of seeing snow or a mix will be from Barton and
Russell Counties and points northwest, no meaningful impacts
expected at this time.

The sfc low and lead wave eject northeast of the area Monday,
however the area will remain in broad troughing to near zonal
flow through mid week. This will keep the door open for
additional compact shortwaves to move through the area. As we
get into late week the spread in the large scale pattern across
models increases, though there is some consensus in a larger
system setting up once again off/along the west coast.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

MVFR/IFR stratus should develop ahead of a cold front across
south central Kansas during the predawn hours with patchy MVFR
and IFR fog vsbys. A brief period of MVFR stratus/fog is also
expected in southeast Kansas around sunrise. Stronger north
winds behind the cold front will develop across central Kansas
just after daybreak and then lift the stratus cigs to VFR
bases/cigs over southern Kansas later in the morning into the
afternoon along with the stronger north winds behind the frontal
passage.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Stout and gusty north winds will develop Friday morning across
the region behind a strong cold front, fueling some pockets of very
high grassland fire danger from the Flint Hills on west,
especially for pastures at least 85-90 percent cured. Our
attention then turns to Sunday, when very strong and gusty south
winds are expected ahead of a strong storm system. Gusts
exceeding 50 mph are likely areawide. However, critical fire
danger is not expected given scattered precipitation chances
and humidity in the 50s-60s percent.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...


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