Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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389
FXUS63 KICT 160717
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
217 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley area tonight is
progged to continue moving eastward toward the Great Lakes area
through today. Meanwhile, a mid/upper ridge over the Rockies will
amplify as it develops eastward. Light and variable winds can be
expected across much of eastern Kansas while breezy southeast winds
return to central and western Kansas. This will help boost
temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the area today.

As surface high pressure translates eastward away from the area
tonight, southeast winds will return across the forecast area
resulting in more seasonable lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Tue-Wed...The H85 thermal ridge over the Southern High Plains is
progged to expand north and east across the Central Plains on
Tuesday helping to drive temperatures above normal once again but
this will be short-lived as a progressive shortwave trough emerging
from the Rockies will drive a cold front south across the area on
Tuesday night sending temperatures back to normal on Wed with highs
in upper 60s. Strong northwest winds are anticipated with deep
mixing/subsidence on the southern periphery of the shortwave trough
moving across the Northern Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward across
the Great Plains on Thu with seasonable temperatures and dry weather
conditions. The next storm system is progged to emerge from the
Rockies late Fri-Sun bringing widespread precipitation to the area.
There appears to be reasonable agreement on the large scale
evolution between the Canadian/GFS and ECMWF while the EMC GEFS
plumes indicate mean precipitation between 1-2 inches across much of
the forecast area. Pops were raised late Fri into Sat as confidence
in widespread rainfall increases.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Low clouds will linger across eastern Kansas tonight and gradually
shift east towards day break. Meanwhile surface high pressure will
build over the region with northeast winds switching to the
southeast winds during the morning on Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Breezy southerly winds and minimum relative humidities in the mid
and upper 20s will create a very high grassland fire danger across
much of central and south central KS on Tue. A cold front will
bring gusty northwest winds on Wed and although temperatures will
only rise into the 60s, a very high grassland fire danger is
expected once again with minimum relative humidities falling into
the low to mid 20s. An approaching storm system will bring
increasing chances for more widespread precipitation and
decreasing fire weather concerns late in the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  61  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      22  59  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          21  60  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        24  60  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   24  62  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         19  58  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      20  59  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          20  58  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       20  59  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     25  59  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         25  57  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            25  57  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    25  58  42  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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