Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201739
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Despite it spoiling some weekend plans, much needed/beneficial
rainfall will grace central and southeast Kansas. A vigorous upper
low center approaching the Four Corners region later this morning
will move steadily east across the central/southern Rockies
through this evening, before emerging across southern
Kansas/northern Oklahoma during Saturday. While this system will
lack deep Gulf moisture, overall dynamic lift associated with the
upper low appears rather impressive across the area, supportive
of a period of high categorical PoPs late tonight into Saturday.
Instability will likewise be lacking, though some weak elevated
CAPE is a possibility for the Oklahoma border counties late
tonight so plan to include isolated thunder there. The relatively
higher QPF amounts are also expected across southern Kansas this
weekend generally in the 0.60 to 0.80" range with locally higher
amounts possible. Precip chances will gradually diminish/end from
west to east across the area Saturday night into Sunday as the
upper low moves east-southeast across the Ozarks. Temperatures
will average below climo the next few days with Saturday being the
coolest/raw day in the rain.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Temperatures look to average a bit below late April climo through
early next week. A shortwave upper trof moving across the northwest
CONUS is expected to track southeast across the northern
Plains/Midwest Tuesday/Tuesday night. This associated cold front
will move south across Kansas and the Plains with rather modest
rain chances.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Flight conditions will deteriorate starting this evening, with
IFR/LIFR conditions likely by daybreak. Precipitation will move
into KRSL/KGBD this evening. Precipitation reaches KCNU in the
predawn hours. Increasing moist low level upslope flow and
precipitation will result in lowest ceilings at KRSL/KGBD. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Fire weather concerns will be relatively low through the weekend
with widespread rainfall expected on Saturday. The rain chances
will begin across central Kansas this evening, spreading east
into southeast Kansas late tonight. The rain will gradually
diminish from west to east across the area late Saturday night
through Sunday.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  44  52  43 /  10  90  80  50
Hutchinson      63  44  51  41 /  10  90  70  50
Newton          63  43  51  42 /  10  80  70  50
ElDorado        63  44  52  43 /  10  80  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   65  45  53  43 /  10  80  80  60
Russell         62  42  50  38 /  30  80  60  40
Great Bend      61  42  50  38 /  40  80  60  40
Salina          64  44  52  41 /  10  80  70  50
McPherson       63  43  51  40 /  10  90  70  50
Coffeyville     65  45  55  46 /   0  40  80  70
Chanute         64  44  54  45 /   0  40  70  70
Iola            63  44  54  44 /   0  40  70  70
Parsons-KPPF    65  45  55  46 /   0  40  70  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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