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410
FXUS63 KICT 222340
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
640 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Water vapor imagery shows upper low spinning over northern
AR/southern MO with with showers continuing to rotate around the
low over southern MO into southeast KS.

Precip will come to an end this evening over southeast KS as the
upper low continues to track east into the Tennessee Valley.
Should finally see some sunshine Mon as we get into a brief period
of subsidence behind the departing wave. However, this will be
short-lived as models remain consistent diving an upper impulse
out of the northern Rockies and out into the northern Plains by
Tue morning. There is very good agreement with the models tracking
this wave across central KS Tue evening. Confidence is increasing
that we will see some showers as this impulse/cold front moves
through the area Tue afternoon through Tue night. Confidence is
also high that we are not going to see any severe storms with this
wave and maybe hard pressed to see any thunder given the lack of
moisture. Some of the showers may linger into Wed morning as the
upper energy moves into OK.

Another shortwave will quickly follow on the heels of the Tue
system with decent model agreement in it tracking out of southern
Canada and into the northern Plains Wed night. After Wed night,
ECMWF and GFS start to diverge on the handling of this wave. The
ECMWF remains consistent in digging the energy further west
compared to the GFS which would be a wetter solution for us. Right
snow have a slight lean to the ECMWF considering it initially did
better with the Tue system and also has some support from the
Canadian. So will leave the small pops in Thu the initialization
give us.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Attention for these extended periods will turn to the progression
of another upper low set to come on shore over northern CA by Sat.
The ECMWF keeps this wave consolidated into one piece of energy,
while the GFS brings it out in a couple difference pieces.
For now will leave the weekend dry with the hopes they come into
better agreement. Confidence is fairly high that we will be
looking at a warming trend this weekend, with highs in the 70s by
Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

As the upper low continues to track east, precipitation has ended
at all sites as of 00Z, with the exception of a few lingering
sprinkle chances at KCNU for a couple more hours (though did not
include in the TAF due to isolated nature). Cloud ceilings have
reached VFR at all sites except KICT and KCNU, which remain at
MVFR for now. However, expecting ceilings to continue to rise and
flight conditions will gradually improve tonight and into
tomorrow. Winds will generally be out of the north/northeast and
should be fairly light throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Fire danger concerns are expected to remain on the low side for
the next several days.

Northerly winds will gradually come around to the northeast and
east Mon. Another cold front is then expected to push through Tue
into Tue night with some showers expected along it. This scenario
will keep below normal temps in place and relatively light winds.
In addition, recent rains should allow grasses to finally start to
green up a bit more which will also help mitigate fire danger
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  72  47  69 /  10   0   0  20
Hutchinson      44  71  45  66 /   0   0   0  30
Newton          44  71  46  67 /  10   0   0  20
ElDorado        45  71  46  70 /  10   0   0  20
Winfield-KWLD   45  72  46  71 /  10   0   0  20
Russell         41  71  44  61 /   0   0  10  50
Great Bend      41  71  45  61 /   0   0  10  50
Salina          44  70  44  67 /   0   0   0  40
McPherson       44  71  44  66 /   0   0   0  30
Coffeyville     48  71  46  73 /  20  10   0  10
Chanute         47  71  46  72 /  20  10   0  10
Iola            46  70  46  72 /  20  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    48  71  47  73 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...TAV
FIRE WEATHER...RBL