Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252325
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
625 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow developing with some minor impacts through this evening
  expected along the I-70 corridor west of Salina.

- Hard freeze across the region tonight and Tuesday night.

- Warming trend late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A mid latitude cyclone over the Rockies/Central Plains today will
begin to lift northeast of the area as we move through the overnight
hours. Some light snow impacting western Kansas will gradually build
eastward into central Kansas under the mid/upper trough this
afternoon and evening before gradually diminishing and shifting
northeast of the area. A dusting to a couple of inches of snow will
be hard to rule out before large-scale forcing for subsidence
increases as we move through the overnight hours. Warm sfc
temperatures should limit impacts on roads this afternoon but with
temperatures below freezing, bridges and overpasses could become
slick. No changes to the winter weather advisory are planned at this
time. Low level cold air advection will send temperatures below
freezing across the area tonight with lows in the 20s for most areas.

Isolated storms could develop across far southeast KS late this
afternoon where some residual low level moisture remains ahead of
the slow moving cold front. A strong storm or two may be possible
but marginal buoyancy will preclude more vigorous activity.

Tue-Wed...A mean larger scale trough will continue to impact the
central CONUS leading to a continuation of below normal temperatures
on Tuesday. Afternoon highs may struggle to reach 40 along the I-70
corridor while those near the OK state line see highs near 50.
Surface high pressure is progged to settle southward across
northeast KS Tue night into early Wed. This will allow strong
radiational cooling to occur with another widespread late March
freeze anticipated once again. Temperatures will begin to moderate
some on Wednesday while remaining below climate normals for late
March as southerly low level flow returns to the area. Most
locations will see highs in the mid 50s. There will be a transient
shortwave trough that moves across the Southern High Plains which
could bring a period of clouds to the area but minimal impacts to
sensible weather are expected at this time.

Rising heights/increasing thickness will overspread the central
CONUS bringing rising temperatures and dry weather to the region Thu-
Fri. A weak backdoor front may keep highs from reaching their full
potential over the weekend although seasonably mild values are still
anticipated with highs in the 60s and 70s. We could see another push
of cooler air arrive early in the week but confidence in the timing
remains fairly low leading to some increasing uncertainty in
temperatures for the beginning of next week. The probabilities for
beneficial moisture appear low (20%) at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Moderate areas of snow will continue to impact central Kansas
through the evening hours with some snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches expected. Meanwhile low clouds and drizzle with some
light freezing drizzle will affect south central Kansas, which
could see a change over to light snow this evening.
Accumulations will only be a dusting. Low clouds in MVFR
category will linger over the region into the morning hours
before a slow clearing spreads west to east across the area
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-
047-048.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ


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