Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180449
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave over the Great Basin
approaching the Central Rockies. At the surface, stationary front
stretches from northern AR and across southern KS, with a dryline
extending through western OK.

Deep surface low is expected to quickly track from western KS
into northeast portions of the state tonight. This will spread
strong northwest winds across the forecast area generally after
10 pm with these strong winds expected to persist through most of
Wed. Went ahead and ran with a wind advisory for tonight through
Wed for areas along and west of I-135 to account for these strong
nw winds. Even though gradient will slacken during the day Wed,
good mixing should make up for it, allowing sustained speeds
around 30-35 mph with higher gusts. See fire weather section below
to see how these winds will elevate the fire danger.

Cold front is expected to push through all of the southern Plains
as surface ridge overspreads the region. This will allow for below
normal temps for both Thu and Fri with highs around 5 degrees
below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Main focus for these extended periods will be another strong
shortwave to move out into the Plains Fri night into Sat. GFS and
ECMWF are in decent agreement moving the impulse from the southern
Rockies into central/southern OK during the day Sat. While
confidence is high that most of the area will at least see some
rain, confidence is much lower with regards to who will pick up
the more substantial rainfall. Med range models have been slowly
trending south with this system which will be something to watch.
Severe chances don`t look too good, as we never get the rich
moisture this far north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Very strong northwest winds will spread eastward across the region
overnight as a strong cold front races to the east. The strong northwest
winds will persist through the day on Wednesday and should
diminish around sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Grassland fire danger will be elevated into the very high
category on Wed.

Surface winds are expected to flip around to the northwest from
west to east tonight and remain out of the northwest through the
day Wed. Sustained speeds both tonight into Wed will generally be
in the 25 to 35 mph range with the higher speeds along and west
of I-135. Lowest RH values on Wed are expected to be in the 25%
to 30% range with the lowest values west of I-135. These
conditions will result in very high grassland fire danger for the
entire area Wed with Russell and Barton counties on the upper end
of the very high scale.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    48  68  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      45  66  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          46  66  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        48  66  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   48  68  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         41  64  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      42  65  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          44  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       44  65  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     52  68  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         50  64  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            50  62  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  66  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047>051-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ052-053-069-093.

High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050-051-067-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...RBL



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