Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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558
FXUS63 KICT 260344
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1044 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Meso convective vort (MCV) associated with last nights convective
complex (MCS), currently located over the Flint Hills, continues to
spin south into NE OK. Lots of subsidence in the wake of last nights
storms,  across most of south central KS, as atmosphere got worked
over by the MCS overnight. The MCS also threw out an outflow
boundary that has pushed into nrn OK. The main concern for the late
afternoon and early evening hours, will be, can southern KS recover
enough for a chance of renewed convective chances.

Latest short range hi rez models suggest most of the better
instability will pool just to the south of the forecast area near
the remnant outflow boundary in nrn OK.  There is an outside shot
that part of this outflow will mix north some, into extreme southern
KS. So think the best chance of renewed convection will be along the
KS/OK border or mainly just south of the border, for the late
afternoon into the early evening hours. Also think that just ahead
of the MCV we could see some renewed storms over extreme SE KS as
well.  So will leave slight pops in for these chances. Modest
instability could lead to a couple of vigorous updrafts, for a
strong to possibly a pulse severe storm chance, but weak shear will
keep convection from becoming well organized in KS.

For the rest of the night, expect warm and humid conditions for the
region with any convection that develops in nrn OK dropping south
towards the Red river.

Upper ridging will prevail for most of the holiday weekend, with
high confidence of well above normal temps. Not expecting any kind
of showers for Sat-Sun, with any kind of convection located well
west of the forecast area, across the high plains for Sun
aftn/evening.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The upper ridge will dampen out going into Mon with flow becoming
more southwesterly or zonal for the start of next week.  Impulses in
the flow, may lead to renewed chances for convective complexes to
develop over the high plains and roll into the forecast area for Mon
night and again on Tues night. Think the above normal temps and
humid conditions will continue across the region as well.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

The few storms that developed over northwest KS quickly
dissipated as they tracked east early this evening. Upper ridging
is expected to track from the Rockies into the central and
southern Plains. This will keep storm chances out of the forecast
for Saturday and leave VFR conditions in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  94  69  95 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      66  95  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          67  94  68  94 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        67  92  69  93 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  92  69  94 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         64  96  67  95 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      64  95  67  94 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          67  97  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       66  96  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     68  92  68  94 /  10  10   0   0
Chanute         67  91  68  93 /  10  10   0   0
Iola            67  91  68  93 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    68  91  68  94 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL



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