Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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360
FXUS63 KICT 191810
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
110 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

A mid/upper trough over the Central Great Basin area is progged
to shear eastward while another shortwave trough over the Ohio
Valley area lifts north and east allowing the mid/upper ridge
axis to shift east of the area. At the surface, a cold front is
progged to move south across the Central Plains states today.
This front will provide a focus for deep moist convection during
the late afternoon with higher probabilities during the evening
hours. We may see an attempt along a dryline this afternoon along
and east of the Turnpike, but confidence in this scenario remains
fairly low. Ongoing convection during the predawn hours today will
likely linger into the morning hours across portions of the area with
continued low level moisture transport into a weakly capped
airmass. As we move into the afternoon hours, the RAP and to a
lessor degree the NAM and GFS indicate veered low level flow with
marginal moisture progged in the boundary layer. Although the deep
layer shear improves compared to the previous day, the wind
profiles are progged to be more unidirectional with some
indication of backing in the H7-H5 layer. This should support a
more linear mode along the frontal boundary during the evening and
overnight hours where large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain
will be the primary threats. The better tornado threat appears to
remain north and east of our forecast area where the low level
flow will have a better chance of being backed on the eastern
periphery of the sfc low, but it will be hard to rule out a brief
tornado or two during the early stages of development or along the
dryline if cells can remain more discrete. Storms may linger into
the overnight hours as the effective front eventually is driven
south and east of the area.

Sun-Mon...Maintained low pops early Sunday, but the focus should
be south and east of the area where better chances for showers and
storms will remain. Temperatures are expected to be closer to
climate normals with values ranging from the low 70s across
central KS to near 80 in the southeast corner of the state.
Shortwave ridging will emerge from the Rockies early in the week
as we remain in a stable post-frontal regime. Rising temperatures
are anticipated with above normal temperature quickly returning on
Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Southwest mid/upper flow is progged to return as we move through
much of the upcoming week. This will help steer any subtle
shortwave troughs into the area bringing additional chances for
showers and storms through much of the period. Above normal
temperatures are also expected with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Once again thunderstorm activity is the primary concern for this
forecast period. There has been some shower development in
central KS which would impact KRSL and KGBD for the next couple of
hours. The cold front is on the move and winds are beginning to
swing to the north. This frontal boundary and an outflow boundary
are going to be the source of thunderstorms closer to 0Z. Tempo
groups have been inserted for each site for the highlighted time
periods of greatest potential based on the latest model guidance
as well as IFR conditions given the expected heavy rainfall. Amendments
are certain once the initialization occurs.

As the front moves through and mentioned above, there will be a
shift in the wind direction. This could occur sooner than
currently in the forecast. A gradual trend has been indicated for
now. Ceilings are expected to drop behind the precipitation and
fall to the MVFR category and stay there for the latter part of
this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  56  76  58 /  50  60  20  10
Hutchinson      81  54  74  54 /  50  60  10  10
Newton          83  54  74  55 /  50  60  20  10
ElDorado        85  55  76  57 /  60  60  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   90  57  77  59 /  60  60  20  10
Russell         70  50  70  51 /  50  20  10  10
Great Bend      72  49  71  52 /  40  20  10  10
Salina          77  54  71  53 /  50  50  20  10
McPherson       79  53  72  53 /  50  60  20  10
Coffeyville     90  63  81  61 /  60  60  10  10
Chanute         89  62  80  59 /  70  60  20  10
Iola            88  62  79  58 /  70  60  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    90  62  81  60 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...VJP



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