Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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824
FXUS63 KICT 240448
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Tonight-Thursday:
Light flow and afternoon heating will keep some storms percolating
until sunset in southeast KS. Expect rapid demise after sunset.
While there is no strong signal, cannot rule out an isolated storm
Thursday morning in southeast KS where moisture lingers and again
in the afternoon. Close to persistence expected on temperatures.

Thursday night-Saturday:
Better chances later Thursday night as well defined wave
transitions through upper flow. Models have varying solutions on
track of resultant MCS, but most clip the northeast half of
forecast area late Thursday night/Friday morning. Some bring the
main system across the area, others develop precipitation as low
level jet overruns outflow boundary. Either way, small to modest
chances are warranted for a good chunk of the area. Anticipate
models are way too generous with precipitation during the day on
Friday, in the wake of the MCS. The mechanism for precipitation
would require either an nearly stationary MCV or for the outflow
boundary to stall somewhere in the area. Given that the last one
had less upper support and the boundary pushed much further south
than anticipated, both of these scenarios seem less likely,
although not impossible. Residual moist air mass in southeast KS
will keep isolated afternoon/early evening storms possible in
southeast KS on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Sunday-Wednesday:
Upper ridge axis will drift across the area on Sunday. Slightly
warmer temperatures are likely on Sunday with a decrease in
precipitation chances. As axis shifts east to start the week,
storms chances look to increase, especially with wave moving
through the ridge of Tuesday-Wednesday. Of note, GFS which was
generally discounted in the HPC extended range discussion, shows
MCS with 3 inch QPF bullseye in central KS Tuesday evening, while
ECMWF is dry. This QPF bullseye is responsible for chance
precipitation Thursday night. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Aviation concern will continue to be overnight storms.

Scattered storms continue to linger across south central KS as
they slowly drift southeast. The intensity has come down over the
last few hours. This activity looks to be sustained by some mid
level moisture transport along with elevated instability. KICT
would have the best chance to see some thunder over the next
couple of hours. Iso-sct storms will again be possible Thu
afternoon as very high instability remains in place. Confidence on
where afternoon convection develops remain low, but there is some
model agreement in storms developing west of I-135, along western
fringes of our forecast area. However, there is a much better
signal for storms Thu night over central KS as some shortwave
energy moves out of the central Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  88  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
Hutchinson      67  88  67  93 /  20  10  20  10
Newton          66  87  67  92 /  10  10  20  10
ElDorado        66  85  67  89 /  10  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  87  68  90 /  20  20  10  10
Russell         68  90  65  93 /  20  10  20  10
Great Bend      68  89  65  92 /  20  10  20  10
Salina          67  89  68  94 /  10  10  30  10
McPherson       67  88  67  93 /  10  10  30  10
Coffeyville     66  85  67  88 /  30  20  10  30
Chanute         66  84  67  87 /  20  20  20  30
Iola            66  84  67  87 /  20  20  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    66  85  67  88 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL



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