Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191053
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
553 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A ridge of high pressure has settled across the Central and Northern
Plains states bringing light winds and below normal temperatures
to much of the region.

The surface ridge will translate slowly eastward today while a
mid/upper ridge emerges from the Rockies and amplifies across the
central Conus. This will result in tranquil weather conditions
today with seasonably cool highs in the lower 60s.

Fri-Sat...A shortwave trough over the California coast this
morning is progged to move eastward across the Great Basin and
into the Rockies on Friday before emerging across the Central and
Southern Plains states over the weekend. This will bring
increasing chances for rain showers late Friday through Saturday
night. Rainfall amounts between one-half and three-quarters of an
inch appear possible with the highest amounts near the Oklahoma
state line. Strong or severe storms appear unlikely as the better
moisture and instability are progged to remain well south of the
area. Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures below normal
through the period with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows mostly
in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Any lingering precipitation early Sun should diminish from west to
east as we move through the day as shortwave ridging returns in
the wake of the trough. This will bring rising temperatures and
dry weather conditions on Mon, but the warmup is expected to be
short-lived as another cold front is progged to sweep across the
area on Tue. Maintained low pops as we move towards the middle of
the week but as the previous shift noted, confidence through the
end of the period remains fairly low due to big differences
between the various model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

All areas to maintain VFR status thru Fri Morning although
Cirriform cloudiness will increase today & gradually lower late
tonight (though no lower than ~15,000ft). Winds that are W/NW to
~10kts will slowly become ely this afternoon, then sely this eve
as sfc troffing across far Wrn Plains becomes more assertive.
Speeds will gradually increase to ~15kts across wrn half of KS as
this eve progresses.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low through the
period with increasing precipitation chances late Fri-early Sun
and seasonably cool weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  39  65  45 /   0   0   0  70
Hutchinson      62  36  63  43 /   0   0  10  70
Newton          62  37  63  43 /   0   0   0  60
ElDorado        61  38  64  44 /   0   0   0  60
Winfield-KWLD   63  39  65  44 /   0   0   0  70
Russell         63  36  63  41 /   0  10  20  70
Great Bend      63  37  62  42 /   0  10  20  70
Salina          61  35  65  43 /   0   0   0  60
McPherson       62  35  62  43 /   0   0   0  60
Coffeyville     60  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  40
Chanute         60  37  65  44 /   0   0   0  40
Iola            59  37  64  43 /   0   0   0  30
Parsons-KPPF    60  38  65  44 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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