Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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736
FXUS63 KICT 181756
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1256 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

A mid/upper ridge was situated across the central CONUS while a
mid/upper trough was evident on water vapor imagery across the
Central Great Basin area. A progressive shortwave trough rounding
the base of the larger mid/upper trough is progged to emerge from
the Southern Rockies and over the High Plains of western Kansas
late in the day bringing increasing chances for deep moist
convection this evening and tonight across central and south
central KS. Some of the storms could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds. There is some concern that some accas or isolated
showers and thunderstorms could develop through the morning hours
in a mid lvl warm air advection regime on the south side of the
MCS rolling eastward across Nebraska early this morning with some
elevated CAPE progged. Confidence in coverage remains fairly low
at this time.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated late Saturday
along a southward moving cold front. Modest deep layer shear,
steep mid lvl lapse rates and favorable MUCAPE will bring the
potential for severe storms with large hail and damaging winds.

Temperatures in the wake of the front on Sun will return to more
seasonable values with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower
80s. Maintained some low pops across mainly southeast KS where the
remnant frontal boundary may remain stalled. A strong or severe
storms will be hard to rule out.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Southwest mid/upper flow is progged to continue across the central
CONUS through at least the middle of the week as a mean mid/upper
trough remains situated across California/Central Great Basin area
with mid/upper ridging prevailing downstream across the Central
Plains states. We may see some diurnal thunderstorm activity
through much of the period, but deep layer shear will be
unfavorable for more organized severe activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The main concern for this TAF period is definitely the
thunderstorm activity that is expected beginning after 0Z with the
highlighted timeframe of 3-9Z for all but KCNU. This forecast
maintained the VCTS wording and added tempo groups. There does
appear to be a strong wind component potential with these storms
thus this was hinted at within the tempo groups. IFR conditions
are definitely possible with this activity. Given the nature of
this activity, there will be updates without a doubt in the next
issuance based on later model trends.

Wind shear is another factor for KICT, KHUT and KSLN overnight.
This will be dependent on how this system moves through the area
as well as the thunderstorm activity which would bring in another
wind component already. Models are inconsistent in the wind shear
factor with respect to strength; however, it does appear to be
there. Thus it was worth a mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  69  91  60 /  10  30  20  40
Hutchinson      87  66  88  58 /  10  40  10  30
Newton          86  68  90  59 /  10  30  20  30
ElDorado        85  67  89  60 /  10  30  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   87  69  91  61 /  10  20  20  40
Russell         85  61  82  53 /  20  40  20  30
Great Bend      86  63  83  54 /  20  40  10  30
Salina          85  66  88  58 /  30  50  20  30
McPherson       86  65  88  57 /  20  50  20  30
Coffeyville     85  67  90  66 /  10  20  10  20
Chanute         84  66  89  65 /  10  20  20  20
Iola            84  65  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    84  67  89  66 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...VJP



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