000
FXUS63 KICT 181148
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong cold front moves across the state today with showers/storms
  possible this morning

* Below normal temperatures through the weekend

* Rain showers possible late Friday into Saturday, especially across
  southern KS

* More rain chances during the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

As of 245am, a midlevel low was advancing through the northern
Plains with a trailing trough axis extending through the central
high Plains. At the surface, an inverted surface trough extends from
the OK Panhandle to near Salina, and northeastward from there.
Rounds of convection have been noted on the nose of a 45-50 mph LLJ
across northeast KS. Thus far, a stout EML near 17-19C has kept
our forecast area convection-free. As the midlevel trough axis
slides into the area, cooler midlevel temperatures may erode
this capping inversion and allow for additional development
southward into the Flint Hills. Steep midlevel lapse rates will
contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Sufficient veering wind
profiles will yield 25- 30 kt of effective shear. As such, the
strongest updrafts may support hail up to quarter size and wind
gusts up to 60 mph.

As the front sags southward through midday, surface heating ahead of
the front may erode convective inhibition for surface based
parcels. Should these surface storms develop across far southeast
KS, large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds up to 60 mph
will be possible. In addition to the convective threat, much
cooler temperatures will overspread the area this morning through
midday. As the front passes any given location, gusty north winds up
to 45 mph will yield a 10-15 degree temperature drop will occur.
Afternoon temperatures will remain in the 50s across much of the
area.

Surface ridging will build into the forecast area late tonight into
Friday. The right entrance region of a midlevel speed max across the
upper Midwest combined with a subtle perturbation moving across the
state may yield rain showers late Friday night into Saturday. The
best chances appear to develop along the OK border. Additional rain
chances arrive late Monday through Wednesday as weak
perturbations within zonal flow traverse the central Plains.
Temperatures will increase towards the second half of next week
as midlevel ridging overspreading the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A strong cold front will continue blasting south through the
region this morning, with strong north winds and MVFR ceilings
in its wake. Northerly wind gusts will exceed 30-35 kts at
times. Additionally, a relatively narrow band of showers and
thunderstorms will move southeast along and just behind the
frontal passage this morning. The strongest activity could be
capable of small hail and brief heavy rain. MVFR ceilings will
gradually scatter out from northwest to southeast this afternoon
and evening, with diminishing winds by this evening.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...ADK