Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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040
FXUS63 KICT 261719
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Areas of shallow fog were developing over the region early this
morning due to recent rainfall and light winds. Given combination of
moisture being very shallow and high clouds streaming in aloft areas
of dense fog look to be limited this morning. Otherwise, current
satellite water vapor imagery shows next upper level wave over
Montana/Wyoming. This system will race southeast across the central
plains today with increasing mid-level clouds. We could see a narrow
fleet-footed broken band of light rain or sprinkles race southward
just ahead of the PV anomaly. Otherwise precipitation chances look
better for locations west and southwest of the area.

Dry and pleasant weather days will be in store for Kansas on Friday
and Saturday with upper level ridge amplifying across the central
plains, and surface high pressure remaining over the area resulting
in lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High confidence for warm above normal temperatures to prevail for
Sunday into early next week, as long range models remain consistent
with a upper level pattern change to a more pronounced southwest
flow regime aloft. This pattern change will also bring much
richer Gulf moisture northward into Kansas for this period. A
couple upper level waves look to eject out into the central
plains, and interact with this rich moisture on Tuesday and
Wednesday thus creating a favorable signal for severe weather to
affect much of the region. We will continue to watch model trends
for this possible severe weather pattern next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions currently dominate the region this afternoon. The
only area that does not have VFR conditions at the moment is far
Southeast Kansas near CFV and PPF. These terminals are expected to
clear this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to reign through
the remainder of the TAF period. The only issue tonight appears
to be some LLWS which will develop for a few hours over parts
South Central and Southeast Kansas. This will mainly affect HUT,
ICT and CNU terminals. This LLWS is expected to abate before
sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Grassland fire weather concerns will remain low for the next couple
of days but southerly winds will increase during the afternoon hours
for Sunday and Monday. This will raise the grassland fire danger
levels into the very high category for that period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  41  72  45 /  20  20   0   0
Hutchinson      70  39  72  43 /  20  10   0   0
Newton          69  38  71  44 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        68  40  71  44 /  20  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  40  71  44 /  10  20   0   0
Russell         68  35  75  41 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      68  37  74  42 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          69  38  74  42 /  20  10   0   0
McPherson       70  37  72  42 /  20  10   0   0
Coffeyville     68  44  71  45 /  10  20   0   0
Chanute         68  43  71  44 /  10  20   0   0
Iola            68  42  70  44 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    68  43  71  44 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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