342
FXUS63 KILX 280552
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1252 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch in effect tonight for locations along and north of a
  Rushville to El Paso line. Several rounds of thunderstorms with
  excessive rainfall rates may lead to flash flooding.

- Another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
  expected Sunday evening. Highest severe probabilities will be
  focused west of I-55.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Complex convective scenario unfolding this evening. Currently have
a blossoming area of showers and isolated storms from near St.
Louis northeast to Danville. This is occurring in a region of
modest instability and weak deep layer shear, so not anticipating
much more than brief heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
strikes over the next few hours as this festers in a focused
region of moist convergence.

To our west, the main severe convective line of interest stretches
from west central MO into southeast IA. This has formed in an area
of moderate instability (MLCAPE near 2k J/kg) and deep layer shear
of 40+ kt. This line is expected to continue its northeastward
motion this evening, reaching our far northwest CWA around 10-11
pm. The farther east the line pushes, the less favorable the
thermodynamic environment becomes. Still, there appears to be a
few hour window where severe thunderstorms will be possible late
this evening, primarily northwest of the IL River. If storms can
remain surface based all severe hazards would be in play given
curved low level hodographs and sufficient instability for severe
level wind gusts and hail.

Heavy rain and localized flash flooding are also concerns, given
the convergent nose of a strong low-level jet setting up over the
western CWA tonight. With the instability and high moisture levels
already in place, deep convection and high rain rates (1-2"/hr)
seem to be a good bet. 1-hr flash flood guidance is around 1.5",
and these should be approached at least on a localized basis. The
current Flash Flood Watch has the region of concern covered, so
not anticipating any changes to the watch at this time.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A warm and humid airmass has overspread central Illinois this
afternoon...with 19z/2pm temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
and dewpoints hovering in the middle 60s. A slow-moving cold front
is poised well upstream from central Iowa southwestward into
Kansas and will serve as the focus for strong to severe convection
over the next several hours. Regional mesoanalysis shows SBCAPEs
in excess of 3000J/kg ahead of the front from southeast Iowa to
Texas. With 0-6km bulk shear of 35-45kt within this zone, all CAMs
indicate convection rapidly blossoming this afternoon. Meanwhile
further east across central Illinois, instability/shear are not as
impressive and the region is still experiencing synoptic subsidence
as a result of short-wave ridging aloft. Am therefore only expecting
widely scattered thunderstorms within the broad warm sector across
the KILX CWA through the remainder of the afternoon into early
this evening. Most models suggest thunderstorms will begin developing
further east into the Illinois River Valley after 03z/10pm in
response to a strengthening low-level jet oriented from Oklahoma
northeastward into Missouri. HREF indicates low probabilities for
severe wind/hail as far east as the Illinois River this evening,
so think current Slight Risk area west of I-55 has a good handle
on the severe potential.

Aside from the potential for scattered damaging wind gusts and
large hail, there is increasing concern for heavy rainfall and
flash flooding across the W/NW CWA. With precipitable water values
increasing to 1.50-1.75 and several CAMs suggesting training
thunderstorm cells within the instability axis ahead of the
front, have opted to issue a Flood Watch for locations along/north
of a Rushville to El Paso line. Think storms will be efficient
rain-makers...with excessive rainfall rates of over 2 inches per
hour possible. Given the wet soil conditions, think this additional
rainfall could lead to scattered flash flooding...particularly in
flood-prone and urban areas. Further east into central Illinois,
the precip will be much more scattered in nature tonight...with
locations along/south of I-70 staying mostly dry.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Convection tied to the nocturnal LLJ will shift eastward and
weaken considerably late tonight into Sunday morning as it outruns
its energy source. As a result, am expecting overcast conditions
with showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along/west of I-55
on Sunday. Further east, windy and dry conditions will prevail
along and east of the I-57 corridor.

The next round of strong to severe convection will fire along the
cold front across Iowa/Missouri late Sunday afternoon...then
gradually push into west-central Illinois during the evening.
Think a damaging wind/large hail risk will exist as far east as
I-55 before the storms weaken as daytime instability wanes.

Still need to keep an eye on the far E/SE CWA mainly east of I-57
Monday afternoon as the potential still exists for a few strong
storms along the departing cold front. Once the front passes, a
return to warm/dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday.

After that, an unsettled week is ahead as a series of disturbances
brings periodic rain chances Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures
will warm back into the upper 70s/lower 80s by mid-week before
slightly cooler/drier conditions arrive by next weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were over central
IL since mid evening and lifting northeast with strong SSW to southwest
low level jet around 45 kts. This convection has lifted ne of SPI
and about to lift ne of DEC airport. HRRR model has been handling
this convection fairly well and utilized it with this aviation
forecast package. Convection to lift north of CMI and BMI between
07-08Z but be close to PIA on the IL river through 11Z. IFR to
MVFR ceilings and vsbys expected at times with thunderstorms,
lowest at PIA. Continue LLWS overnight until sunrise with 2k ft SW
winds 40-50 kts weakest at PIA. Looks like a break in convection
during the day Sunday with VFR conditions generally expected.
South to SSW winds will increase to 17-24 kts with gusts 28-34 kts
developing between 13-14Z and then weaken some by sunset Sunday
but still gusting around 25 kts during Sunday evening. Another
batch of convection forecast to spread eastward ahead of an
approaching cold front by late Sunday evening after 03Z/10 pm
Sunday with MVFR conditions possible again with band of showers
and thunderstorms.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ILZ027>031-036-037-
040-041.

&&

$$