052
FXUS63 KIND 121012
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
612 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected Monday-Tuesday with 1-2 inches of rain
- Near normal temperatures through the week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Clear skies were present across much of the Ohio Valley early this
morning...with just a small area of mid clouds passing through
northeast parts of the forecast area currently. This has enabled a
much better opportunity for widespread Aurora viewing across the
area as the ongoing solar storm continues. 06Z temperatures ranged
largely from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

An upper low over the eastern Great Lakes early this morning will
move away from the area today...with ridging aloft settling over the
Ohio Valley and joining the surface high already present. With low
level flow transitioning to southwesterly and warm advection
commencing...expect a wonderful finish to the weekend with warm and
dry weather for central Indiana.

After a cool start this morning as temperatures slide back into the
upper 40s and lower 50s...temps will rise quickly with sunny skies
and light winds. Winds will increase to closer to 10mph this
afternoon as the center of the surface ridge settles to the
southeast and return flow develops. Model soundings show another
afternoon with deep mixing present up to nearly 9-10kft during peak
heating which will also aid in increasing winds a bit. Some cirrus
will drift into the region as the day progresses but the overall
state of the sky will be for abundant sun into the early evening.

A cutoff upper level low will eject out of the Rockies later today
and progress into the central Plains by daybreak Monday. The
approach of this feature will lead to a subtle increase in mid and
high level clouds tonight but the combined tandem of ridging at the
surface and aloft will keep plenty of dry air and subsidence across
the region.

Temps...the deep mixing present below 10kft will maintain lower
dewpoints through the afternoon and should enable temperatures to
outperform current guidance by a degree or two. Nudged afternoon
highs up into the upper 70s and lower 80s for much of the forecast
area. Lows tonight will remain in the mid and upper 50s aided by
southerly winds at 5-10mph for much of the night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Monday and Tuesday

Southerly flow will become more robust Monday as a low pressure
system exits the Rockies and begins to intensify as it tracks from
Kansas into the Ohio Valley.  Models have a pretty good handle on
both the timing and strength of this low pressure system which helps
create a high confidence forecast in a period of moderate to briefly
heavy rain Monday evening through the overnight hours with rain
amounts around 1-1.5 inches with the heaviest rain falling during
the daytime hours on Tuesday.

A deformation axis of heavier rain looks to set up on the northwest
side of the low but this axis looks to remain northwest of the
forecast area with areas near Lafayette on the far periphery of this
area of enhanced precipitation. There will be additional
precipitation Tuesday night on the backend of the system, but expect
that coverage will gradually lessen after midnight going into
Wednesday as the better forcing pushes into the East Coast.

Wednesday Through Saturday

Conditions look much quieter going into the middle of the week as
high pressure builds in the aftermath of the early week system.
Temperatures will remain near normal with little flow at the surface
and aloft to advect warmer air into the area. Another upper level
low is expected to take a similar track to the system earlier in the
week Thursday night into Friday with another round of sub-severe
showers and thunderstorms. The exact track with this system remains
much more uncertain with model spread on the axis of heavier rain
varying from central Indiana to as far south as Tennessee. There are
some ensemble members that keep precipitation as late as Saturday,
but those look to be the outlier with the vast majority allowing for
a dry forecast for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 612 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Impacts:

- No impacts through the forecast period

Discussion:

VFR conditions will persist through Monday morning across the
region. Ridging aloft and at the surface will keep pleasant
conditions across the Ohio Valley today and tonight. Clear skies are
expected this morning with a subtle increase in cirrus this
afternoon and evening. High clouds will increase from the west
during the predawn hours with the potential for lower clouds to make
it to KHUF right near daybreak Monday. Southwest winds up to 10 kts
are anticipated today...falling back to light southerly tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan