321
FXUS64 KJAN 081937
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
237 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Through Thursday: A capping inversion has continued to keep a lid on
shower and thunderstorm development so far today. However, there is
still a chance a few cells will break through late this afternoon
into early this evening, especially along and north of the US 82
corridor. If any storms do develop, they could become severe given
strong instability and deep layer shear. Damaging wind gusts and
hail up to 1" are the main concerns. The threat should taper off by
shortly after sunset, then a lull in activity is expected during the
middle of the evening.

Later on tonight, convection developing north and west of the area
will advance south and eastward and may begin to reach northern
portions of the forecast area after midnight. Overall, these storms
are expected to be more vigorous and numerous across parts of the
Midsouth then begin to weaken with southward progress overnight.
However, particularly where convection is more organized, there is
potential for storms to maintain damaging wind and perhaps
marginally severe hail potential into southeast AR, portions of
north LA, and northern portions of central MS during the early
morning hours Thursday. The severe threat is expected to end by
daybreak, though some showers and storms may linger into the morning
hours tomorrow before subsidence in the wake of this round of storms
provides a lull in activity. Isolated showers or storms will begin
to redevelop in the heating of the afternoon Thursday, but greater
convective potential will hold off until the nighttime hours. /DL/

Thursday night through Tuesday: An Enhanced Risk(3 out of 4) of
severe storms is currently outlooked for our CWA between Highway 82
and Highway 84. Confidence has increased in the potential of
convection organizing into and mcs to our west Thursday afternoon
and moving east across the central portions of our CWA Thursday
night. Damaging wind gusts of 75mph will be the main threat but hail
up to the size of golf balls will also be possible. In addition
tornadoes cannot be ruled out and locally heavy rainfall of one to
two inches in a short amount of time will be possible. There still
remains a spread in the guidance with timing but model consensus
suggests that the mcs will be moving into our western most zones
during the early evening and exiting out eastern most zones well
before sunrise Friday. Although the severe threat will end before
sunrise, a cold front will be moving through our CWA Friday morning
and some anafrontal rainfall will prolong rain chances.

By Friday evening the cold front is expected to be pushing off the
Gulf coast with a surface high building into our CWA from the west.
A subtle shortwave within the continued west to northwest flow aloft
is expected to move across the region Friday night into Saturday
morning but will have little moisture to work with and no
additional precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be cooler
than normal and in the 50s for morning lows Saturday. With northwest
flow aloft continuing and the surface high shifting east across the
region Saturday, cooler than normal and dry weather is expected to
continue through Sunday morning but temperatures will warm back
above normal by Sunday afternoon as weak shortwave ridging moves
over our region and return flow increases. Moisture will continue to
increase into Monday and rain chances will return in our west Sunday
night ahead of the next low pressure system to affect our CWA Monday
and Monday night. Models are starting to come into better agreement
with this low pressure system that looks to involve a nearly stacked
low over the central Plains. The potential for severe storms over
our CWA looks to be increasing Monday afternoon and night. /22/
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR stratus still linger at a few sites early this afternoon, but
ceilings should return to VFR within the next hour or two at most
sites. MVFR to locally IFR stratus will return again, spreading
northward overnight and continuing into much of Thursday morning.
Southerly winds will be gusty at times today, with gusts to around
25 kt possible. Isolated TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon,
but most areas will remain dry. Later tonight into early Thursday
morning, SHRA and TS are possible across northern portions of the
area including GLH/GWO/GTR, but the greatest chances will be north
of these locations. If TS does occur, wind gusts to 50 kt are
possible. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  89  66  80 /  20  20  70  10
Meridian      71  90  64  82 /  30  50  70  20
Vicksburg     72  90  66  80 /  30  20  70   0
Hattiesburg   74  93  69  85 /  20  20  70  30
Natchez       73  91  66  82 /  20  20  70  10
Greenville    71  88  64  78 /  60  20  40   0
Greenwood     70  88  63  78 /  60  40  50   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/22/DL