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000
FXUS62 KJAX 130634
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
234 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure around 1026 mb lies to our west early this morning
near the mouth of the Mississippi river with light westerly to
northwesterly winds and clear skies. Cool temperatures are in
the low to mid 50s inland and around 60 at the coast and in the
St Johns river.

As a mid to upper level trough exits away from the east coast
today, southern stream ridging aloft will shift east of the MS
river into the TN Valley towards the southern Appalachian and
support the migration of surface high pressure east along the
central Gulf coast into the FL peninsula later this morning
and reaching into the area by later this afternoon. Winds will be
a bit breezy late this morning into the early afternoon 10-15 mph
and then settle to 5-10 mph from the northwest as the pressure
gradient decreases over the local area. Sunny skies will result
from the dry airmass in place and lower dewpoints into the 30s for
many locations that will make for a relative humidity levels fall
to around 25 percent. Highs will be in the upper 70s for most and
only reach the mid 70s over the NE FL coast where an afternoon
seabreeze develops and moves onshore.

Tonight, winds will become near calm after sunset under clear
skies with the high over the area and provide for radiational
cooling. Lows will fall into the upper 40s over much of NE FL
away from the coast with low to mid 50s along the coast and
around 50 over inland SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Sunday...High pressure ridge at the surface settles just south of
the region over the Florida Peninsula and expect light and
variable winds at 5-10 mph under sunny skies and max temps rebound
to slightly above normal levels in the 80 to 85 range inland,
while an East Coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland keeping
the Atlantic Coast cooler with highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday Night...High pressure ridge remains just south of the region
with a few high clouds streaming out of the Gulf across the
region. Not as cool with overnight lows in the lower/middle 50s
inland and upper 50s along the coast.

Monday...High pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic continues
just south of the region across the FL Peninsula and with a weak
steering flow from the West-Southwest will keep the East Coast sea
breeze pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast and allow for above
normal highs under Mostly Sunny skies in the mid/upper 80s inland
and lower 80s along the Atlantic Coast.

Monday Night...High pressure ridge axis remains in place and under
mostly clear skies and near calm winds inland expect lows in the
mid/upper 50s and near 60 along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Tuesday/Wednesday...Dry conditions are expected to continue as high
pressure ridge extends from the Western Atlantic across the FL
Peninsula and this will bring the steering flow around to a more
southerly direction with a continued warm-up and above normal
temps expected. Highs will reach well into the 80s to near 90 over
inland areas with an East Coast sea breeze pushing inland to the
I-95/US 17 corridor keeping the Atlantic beaches slightly cooler.

Thursday/Friday...Long range models starting to hint at a series
of weakening (mainly dry) cool fronts pushing through the SE US
and settling into the NE FL/SE GA region and washing out with a
potential for a stronger cold frontal passage by next weekend. So
slightly lower confidence in this time frame, but with the fronts
appearing too weak to provide any significant rainfall and for now
PoPs will remain "silent" around 10 percent or so this period,
along with continued temps above normal with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period. Light west
northwesterly winds 4-8 knots will persist through sunrise as
high pressure approaches the region from the west. Clear skies
will remain sunny on Saturday as the high moves closer with
northwest winds becoming breezy by 14Z 10-12 knots with gusts
15-20 knots, then relaxing by 19Z-20Z as the high shifts into the
area from the FL panhandle. A weak seabreeze near SGJ will turn
winds east to southeasterly in the afternoon and variable after
sunset with winds dropping off away from the coast after 00Z to
2 to 4 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Northwest winds will relax by late morning as high pressure moves
into the region today. Winds lighten this afternoon and turn more
to the west as the high sinks over the northeast florida waters
by early evening. The high will remain over the area waters
Sunday and then shift east of the region Monday through midweek.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents today for NE FL beaches
with a low risk for SE GA beaches. A moderate risk will return to
all area beaches on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Weaker trough passage expected today will reinforce the dry air
mass in place with critical RH values around 25 percent, but NW
winds will remain just below critical levels in the 10-15 mph
range, so red flag headlines are not expected but elevated fire
weather conditions are possible as fuels slowly begin to dry out
from recent heavy rainfall. Dry conditions continue on Sunday with
critical RH values around 25 percent with even lighter winds in
the 5-10 mph range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Flood warnings for minor flooding are in effect over portions of
the Altamaha, Satilla, Alapaha, and Suwannee river basins through
next week. Additionally, Moderate flooding is forecast for Three
Rivers Estates along the Santa Fe river basin by midweek next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  51  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  56  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  78  52  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  76  53  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  79  49  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  49  84  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$