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000
FXUS62 KJAX 130525
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
125 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Just minor tweak to the temps and dewpoints tonight, with a clear
and seasonably cool rest of the night in store. There will be
enough of a pressure gradient tonight with departing low pressure
over the Atlantic and high pressure moving in to keep some light
breezes around, and therefore limit any significant radiational
cooling inland. Even still, generally upper 40s to low 50s
expected, except at the immediate coast and St. Johns River areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A pleasant day continues but with breezy westerly winds near
15G30mph rest of the afternoon and early evening. Temps are in the
70s at all sites as of 2 PM. As expected, dewpoints dropped quite
a bit resulting in RH values in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Mid
level trough over the area today will swing east tonight with the
mid level winds tending to shift to more northwest by Saturday
morning. Sfc high will then build in from the west tonight with
the clear skies continuing and winds becoming much lighter,
enabling temps to fall in the dry airmass. Lows were adjusted a
bit below NBM, but not as cool as MOS guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This weekend will be clear skies as a surface high pressure system
settles in over the area. Saturday high temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 70s with night time temperatures in the 50s with
some patchy inland areas dipping into the upper 40s. Sunday, daytime
temperatures will reach the mid 80s inland with temperatures staying
slightly cooler along the coast. Night time temperatures will be
warmer than the previous night staying in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

High pressure conditions continue through the week parks off the
Atlantic coast for most of the week. Temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 80s reaching into the lower 90s at some inland
locations by Thursday. Low temperatures will get out of the 50s
and into the 60s mostly by Wednesday. We could see a weak frontal
boundary approach the area Thursday night based on the ECMWF, but
the GFS is much weaker with any boundary passing through so at
this time showing mainly high pressure ridge continuing with
silent POPs for the Thu-Fri time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period. Light west
northwesterly winds 4-8 knots will persist through sunrise as
high pressure approaches the region from the west. Clear skies
will remain sunny on Saturday as the high moves closer with
northwest winds becoming breezy by 14Z 10-12 knots with gusts
15-20 knots, then relaxing by 19Z-20Z as the high shifts into the
area from the FL panhandle. A weak seabreeze near SGJ will turn
winds east to southeasterly in the afternoon and variable after
sunset with winds dropping off away from the coast after 00Z to
2 to 4 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Winds will surge out of the west and northwest this evening and
for the CWF we have exercise caution nearshore and small craft advisory
offshore for tonight period. Note that guidance used in the forecast
grids leaned toward the higher resolution winds from HRRR and
WRF. Winds will tend to relax Saturday late morning and afternoon
as high pressure builds in from the west. The high will dominate
over the area Sunday and then will translate east of the region
Mon thru Wed.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents rest of today at all
area beaches with a dominate easterly swell at the coast. A moderate
risk is expected for NE FL beaches on Saturday with a low/moderate
risk for SE GA beaches on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The rest of today will be gusty with westerly winds of 15 to 20
mph leading to high dispersions area-wide. Most of SE GA as well
as some patchy areas along the FL/GA border will have high
dispersions for Saturday but weaker winds will allow dispersion to
be trend much lower into the 40s and 50s by Sunday. MinRH will be
near critical values inland area wide Saturday. NE FL will have
areas of patchy critical minRH values until about mid week. Winds
will begin to die down area wide Saturday evening as high pressure
settles into the area.

Main headlines continue to be the high dispersion today and patchy
high dispersion on Saturday. Winds are currently not high enough
for any small scale-type red flag warning area for Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Rainfall yesterday has produced pronounced river rises over area
rivers. Flood warnings for minor flooding are in effect along
portions of the Satilla, Santa Fe, and Suwannee Rivers and will
continue into next week. Additionally, Moderate flooding is still
forecast for Statenville along the Alapaha basin this weekend but
not as high as prior forecast. Moderate flooding forecast for
Santa Fe at Three Rivers Estates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  55  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  77  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  77  54  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  78  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$