204
FXUS62 KJAX 300512
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
112 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Sfc high pressure near the Carolina coast will shift southeastward
through tonight and allow our low level winds to veer. In addition,
a shortwave trough in the mid levels will approach the region from
the west which will shift mid levels more out of the south. A decent
amount of low level moisture is apparent in the NAM and GFS
progs, generally seeing mean RH values of 65-80 percent range.
This should support periods of scattered to occasional broken
fairly weather cumulus. There may be a couple of showers that
skirt across our southwest zones this evening but will be short-
lived. Otherwise, mild overnight lows in the 60s are anticipated
with light southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tuesday, a weak upper level trough makes its way into the area
providing some instability to the region. High pressure off the
Atlantic coast will move further east through the week shifting
winds to southerly and allowing the Gulf coast and Atlantic sea-
breeze to make their way inland in the afternoon, converging along
US 17. This convergence along with the weak upper level instability
provides slight chances (15-25%) for rain and storms in the
afternoon and evening with higher chances for SE GA (35-40%).
Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland staying cooler
along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.

Wednesday, The weak upper level tough has moved east and a surface
high approaches from the west shifting winds to northerly by the
afternoon as it approaches. Northerly winds will allow for the
sea-breeze from the Gulf and Atlantic to make its way inland again
and converge but with the absence of some upper level
instability, rain chances will be a bit lower especially for SE
GA. Expect temperatures in the upper 80s inland with temperatures
in the mid 80s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The upper level ridge continues to build into the area into Friday
drying out the air aloft and reducing the chances for any precipitation
for Thursday and Friday. Mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s Thursday.
Mostly cloudy skies Friday will keep temperatures in the upper
80s, remaining in the low to mid 80s along the coast.

Chances increase for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
for the weekend as an upper level trough makes its way through
the region and a cold front pushes more moisture into the area
from the west. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s inland
with overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the period. Light southerly
winds overnight increase and shift in the afternoon as the sea
breezes shift inland. Showers will be possible for the TAF sites
mainly after 18Z with developments more likely to occur along the
weak frontal boundary moving into SE GA and the sea breeze
convergence along US-17. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
along the sea breeze convergence affecting JAX and VQQ. There may
brief restrictions with heavier activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Breezy southeast winds will continue into Tuesday morning and
then become more southerly into Wed as a weak frontal system moves
into the region. A few showers or a thunderstorm possible Tue
into Wed, mainly offshore waters, associated with the weak frontal
system/upper level disturbance moving into the area. Otherwise,
winds mostly up to about 15 kt and seas near 3-5 ft, possible
touching 15-20 kt and seas up to 4-6 ft briefly but no headlines
anticipated at this time. A cold front is then expected to enter
the southeast states by Saturday night and Sunday, possibly
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to our region by
late in the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:  Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf conditions
will create a high end moderate rip current risk at all area
beaches rest of today. A moderate risk will likely continue on
Tuesday as breezy onshore winds develop during the afternoon hours
and breaker heights remain similar to today. The risk may
decrease towards midweek as surf heights subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  65  87  63 /  40  30  20   0
SSI  81  66  83  66 /  20  20  20   0
JAX  86  65  88  65 /  20  20  20  10
SGJ  84  66  87  67 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  87  63  87  63 /  20   0  30   0
OCF  87  63  88  64 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$