National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KKEY 211852
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
252 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
Surface analysis places an area of high pressure centered just to
the southeast of Bermuda, with a frontal boundary draped across
the Carolinas extending southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico.
Lightning observations are consistent with the decaying nature of
this frontal boundary, with a significant reduction in cloud to
surface strikes over the past couple of hours. Skies are mostly
sunny across the Florida Keys island chain as well as the adjacent
nearshore and offshore coastal waters. Temperatures are in the
lower to mid 80s at most communities.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will slowly dive southward
tonight, pushing through the Florida Keys Monday afternoon and
evening. The front will likely come through with little in the way
of shower activity. High pressure building in its wake across the
Southeast will quickly slide offshore into the western North
Atlantic. Thus, cool advection will be very limited behind the
frontal passage, with winds quickly clocking around to the
easterly direction by Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Global deterministic and ensemble guidance has come into much
better agreement in terms of the evolution of the mid-level ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico. It now appears that the ridge will
rebuild by mid- to late-week, resulting in less opportunity for
any weak disturbances to ripple through the Keys. Have thus elected
to lower rain chances to dimes for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Mainly dry conditions will continue for late week
and into next weekend. The main weather story will be the a
tightening pressure gradient, resulting in an extended period of
breezy to windy conditions at times for the Florida Keys.
Temperatures will remain seasonally warm for at least the next
seven days, with highs generally in the mid 80s, and lows in the
lower to mid 70s.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high
pressure over the western North Atlantic continues to retreat
farther offshore tonight, southeasterly breezes will slacken
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Light to gentle southeast
to south breezes tonight into Monday will become moderate from the
northwest to north Monday afternoon and evening, as a weak
frontal boundary slides through South Florida and the Keys. High
pressure building over the Southeast will bring moderate easterly
breezes back to the Keys waters by the middle of the week, with
fresh breezes developing late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024
VFR and occasionally cloud-free skies will persist over EYW and MTH.
Near-surface winds will decrease from near 10 knots to variable near
5 knots in the late afternoon. Tomorrow morning, winds will veer
west-northwesterly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2012, the daily record rainfall of 1.99" was recorded
in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  73  84  72 /   0   0  10   0
Marathon  86  76  87  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest