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000
FXUS64 KLCH 202101
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
401 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Frontal bndry is now moving slowing along and south the I-10
corridor and interacting with a weak sea/lake breeze. This is
popping isolated storms along and just north of I-10 from SE TX
into Lafayette. This will continue into early evening, before the
main focus shifts north. Expect another round of showers/storms,
which is now organizing across SE TX and further interior. This
will slide from NW to SE across the region tonight into Sunday
morning, before exiting Acadiana by afternoon.

While a strong storm or two is possible, the main focus continues
to be the marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall. HREF
paints a solid 1-2" across SE TX and into portions of central LA,
with the LPMM showing localized areas of 1.5 to 3". The way the
CAMs and current radar are shaping up, the areas that show the
greatest risk in the short term will be Tyler, Hardin, and
northern portions of Jasper/Newton Counties. Given the saturated
soils, localized flash flooding is possible. However, widespread
flooding is not expected as the dynamics and the overall mesoscale
setup does not favor a prolonged or intense period of rainfall.
As the system and front slides SE across the rest of LA, rainfall
total will generally be less than one inch.

As the frontal bndry pushes offshore, gusty NE winds will develop.
At this time, winds should stay below adv criteria, but will still
be quite gusty during the afternoon. Daytime highs will also be
much cooler with highs in the middle and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A warming trend gets underway through the extended period. Surface
high pressure will slide east of the region by Tuesday morning
turning winds out of the southeast advecting tropical low level
moisture back across the region. Dewpoints will climb from the mid
40s Tuesday morning to near 60 by Tuesday night. Aloft, the region
will remain beneath weak ridging that will maintain fair skies
through much of the week. A frontal boundary will dig south into
northern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon before stalling which is
expected to provide more cloud cover across central Louisiana and
interior southeast Texas Wednesday and Thursday.

The pressure gradient will tighten across the region Friday ahead of
the next cold front moving across central Texas. Early indications
are that the best energy and moisture with this disturbance will
track across north Louisiana, but not putting much confidence in
that this far out.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

MVFR and brief VFR continues this afternoon. Expect Iso/sct
showers and storms to develop across SETX and SWLA through the
afternoon. Winds will generally be from the SE, with the exception
of KAEX currently from the NE.

Later this evening CIGs crash to IFR/MVFR and continue through the
night with SCT to numerous showers/storms area wide. Brief LIFR
possible under heavier showers with VSBYs impacted as well.

Showers/storm end from west to east Sunday morning with VFR
returning by the afternoon. SFC winds will be from the NE behind
the front with sustained winds of 8-14 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase tonight into
Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area. The front will
move offshore by early Sunday, with strong offshore winds
developing in its wake Sunday morning and continue into early
Monday before diminishing. Small Craft Advisories are now in
effect during this timeframe. Winds will diminish through the day
Monday, with onshore flow redeveloping by Tuesday as surface high
pressure moves over the eastern seaboard.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  65  42  70 /  90  50   0   0
LCH  57  68  50  72 /  70  40   0   0
LFT  59  67  50  74 /  60  50   0   0
BPT  57  69  50  75 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for
     GMZ430-432-450-452-470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for
     GMZ435-436-455-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...78